Progress is like a train to unknown lands. You can go up there and see a lot of things, some beautiful, some bad. Considering the first, you rejoice; with respect to the latter, you can react either by preparing yourself for the shock, or by confronting them and trying to make them harmless to you. But if you don't go up, you'll just have to wait and suffer when they fall on your head. And Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) is this train! We are going to tell you what it is, how it will impact our lives and what we need to know.
What is AI?
“A.I. is a method for making a computer, a machine controlled by a computer or software, as intelligent as the human brain, being carried out by…”. We will stop, because we are not here to knock you out by giving you a definition that is scientifically correct, but boring as hell. We simply tell you that the A.I. is software, like a smartphone application, but which can carry out a whole complex of tasks on its own, from the very simple to the very complicated, that you ask it to do. What is specific to it – and justifies being called “intelligence” – is that it learns as you give it tasks to accomplish. As a result, she will perform better and better what you ask her to do, but also, at the same time, she will learn to accomplish more and more complex tasks, more and more complicated, based on those already carried out in the past. Disclaimer: AI is a tool, not a magic instrument. So, the more you are able to use it, the more you get from it and, conversely, the less gifted you are, the further the result will be from what you want.
What is not?
First, the A.I. is not an entity/thing (machine) with physical existence; it only exists in the virtual world, on the internet. So, the l. A. can only do anything in the physical world through the intermediary of an “arm”, whether it be a Man (the human being, male and female included) or a machine. Second, A.I. does not have and will never have an autonomous existence, outside of that of Man. It must be created, developed, monitored and repaired (yes, repaired, because it is like a car, so can break down, may need servicing etc.). In time, it will be able to do many of these operations by itself - it is an "intelligence" however - but not all. For what? Because she cannot regulate (corrected, repaired, improved etc.) that what is her and only her, what Man does not touch, does not affect. But once she enters into interaction with Man, sooner or later, there will be problems, problems that only he can solve. Let's not forget that AI, being software, is built on the basis of mathematical logic and that we will never be able to make it think/think like a Man! Because Man, even when he acts and behaves in a logical manner, it is not always universal logic; and when Man begins to act/react in relation to emotions, feelings, impulses, states of mind, it's the end of the game. Even a highly developed AI will lay down its weapons (either freezes or malfunctions), in which case human intervention will be essential. The simplest example is the failure to make an autonomous car, which did not know what to do when faced with a person who does not strictly respect the Highway Code. But maybe she will be able to improve/progress in the future enough to understand Man and gain the upper hand over him?
The A.I. can never gain the upper hand over Man.
Let's be very clear: an AI – any AI of today or the future – is just software built on the basis of mathematical logic (so, essentially, it is a complex mathematical operations) . But, any other type of logic, plus emotions (and everything else) cannot and will never be expressed by mathematical formulas. For this, it is necessary to have a body – of flesh and blood – and the social relationships that go hand in hand and which are built from feelings and emotions. What an AI cannot and will never be able to know, understand and reproduce. She will only be able to ignore them and continue working as if they did not exist (because they do not exist in her reality). From here, consequences:
1. Any interactions with humans that do not respect mathematical logic will disrupt it in the execution of its tasks. If most of the time, she will be able to resolve this by herself, there will be cases where human intervention will be necessary.
2. She cannot and will never be able to wish/want what is not understood and, therefore, does not exist for her: power, wealth, domination over others, etc. So, forget the catastrophic scenarios that we find in books, films, video games. And don't believe or follow those who say this and advocate banning A.I. for this reason – it is stupid and unnecessary: if you stand in front of the train, it will pass over you. In exchange, do you think that they serve – voluntarily or involuntarily – the interests of a foreign power. One which, by developing its AI, will be able to take over us – if we choose to ban them. “The”, because there is not just one A.I., but several.
Are there multiple A.I.'s? Yes.
1. “Official” classifications.
Experts/scientists have defined them, mainly, by relating their “intelligence” to Man. According to them, there are three types of AI: the less "intelligent" than Man, as much "intelligence" as him and the "super-intelligent" (who exceed him), while emphasizing that today Today, we are working to create the second category and the last one is postponed for an uncertain future. Others propose another classification that makes more sense to us, i.e.: a) Generative AI – which generates content on demand (like ChatGPT for texts, PhotoDirector for photo montages, VividArt for create art) by modifying/transforming those that already existed; b) Evolutionary A.I. - which develops solutions in a certain sector of activity (for example: to optimize the planning and logistics of a large transport company) and c) predictive, which makes future forecasts based on historical data and current (like that used by Amazon to predict our future purchases and used to influence us to buy more and more expensively, for example).
2. Our classification.
First, they are divided into “specialized” and “general”. “Specialized” AIs carry out specific tasks in a certain sector of activity or in relation to a certain profession and nothing else. They are either “public”, accessible to all, free or for a small fee (like ChatGPT, VIVID Art) or “professional”, tailor-made for the needs of companies, banks, state services. “General” AIs are those who have an intelligence similar to humans, and who would be capable of learning and working like humans in any sector of activity or profession. Eventually, there may be “super-intelligent” AIs that could perform better than him. But it doesn’t matter how AI is classified; In the end, what we must remember is that they will have a strong impact on people's professional lives and private lives. Probably.
Why probably?
Today, almost unanimously, there are songs in praise of AI and thousands and thousands of predictions how and in what gigantic proportions they will change people's lives. It's likely, but not certain yet. As we are a predictive AI, we will just tell you to be careful, because there is a blind spot in all of this: the financial fallout. What are they and how can they be obtained (mainly in the case of “public” A.I.)? Because today, there is a flood of investments and financing to create AI; but tomorrow, investors will want to pocket the profits and will they exist or not? Because, if they do not exist or do not conform to expectations, everything will go up in smoke and the next day who sings today for AI of this type - there will become the turkey of the farce tomorrow.
In conclusion, here is our advice.
Learn to use AI as best as possible, but without falling into dependence (remain able to fend for yourself just in case...). Please also know that by being totally (or almost) dependent on them, you will cede your independence, your free will to those who create or use AI (companies, insurance companies, mutual societies, banks, state services) . On the other hand, what is sure and certain is that “professional” AI (whether in industry, finance or state services – education, health, defense) will develop strongly and have very good results. days ahead of them (because they will pay the price to have them). So, we must prepare ourselves for the changes they will bring to our lives.
What changes?
The changes will be felt, more or less, in all sectors of activity and in parts of our private and professional lives, in greater or lesser proportions. Two sectors need to be analyzed more specifically:
1. The labor market. From the outset, we tell you our opinion that we could not put A.I. to do jobs where “human” work is necessary (involving feelings, emotions, etc. Imagine an A.I. commenting on a football match or lead a debate: either we are knocked out by not showing emotions, or we are irritated by overplaying them). On the other hand, all jobs for positions that require routine, repetitive, mechanical operations, which do not involve, let's put it this way, the creation (of something new) or frequent contact with humans will disappear. For the beginning, those in IT (everything related to simple coding and others like that) and in the bureaucratic/administrative world (accounting, writing reports, receiving and saving documents). Later in industry, when machines/robots could replace humans (when the purchase and maintenance of a machine costs less than having a human for that position). People working there should expect this change to come sooner or later and seek to diversify and reskill. At the same time, an avenue will open for professions requiring work for and/or in connection with A.I. (creation, maintenance, repair, development). In the middle, there will be jobs that mix the two above and that experts today think that A.I. will be able to do, but on condition of being supervised by a Man to prevent him from making mistakes (which is what Google didn't do it when they launched their Gemini A.I.; subsequently, it made so many mistakes - Nazi soldiers and the Black Pope, Asian Vikings etc. that today, at the beginning of March 2024, this A.I. is “becoming a reputational nightmare” according to the Wall Street Journal). In time, experts assure us, the AI of the future will reach such a capacity that they will no longer make errors. In our opinion, this will never happen, because Man's capacity to do stupid things is infinite and will always exceed even the most "intelligence" resources of AI. In short, once an AI is brought to work a little more closely with Man, no matter how "intelligent" she is, there will be someone there who, voluntarily or, more likely, unintentionally, will do something to put her in difficulty/to give trouble. errors and, therefore, a Man will have to intervene to repair/correct what another has broken.
2. Connected life. Today, a significant (or sometimes very significant) part of our lives, whether private or professional, is closely linked to an internet connection (WI – FI, telephone). AI will be used by various subjects – hackers, companies, the State, etc. – to achieve “benign” objectives (for example: influencing our choices of purchases, votes, lifestyle models) or “malignant” ( identity theft, stealing/extorting money or personal data through malware like ransomware etc.). Even more serious, AI could be used by non-state organizations (Hezbollah/Hamas type militias, criminal or terrorist organizations) or hostile states to attack us on a large scale (blocking of telephone and data networks - Internet, destabilizing the state services). But, as every action attracts a reaction, we will be offered protection services (also based, of course, on AI) by the State, banks, telephone operators, companies against such attacks. Services of different qualities and prices, it is up to us to recognize and choose those that best meet our needs and our finances. Which we can only do if we are well informed and knowledgeable. This means that it is up to us and mainly up to us to prepare well (research, read, understand, learn) for similar cases in the near future. But also by campaigning to regulate and strictly supervise A.I.
Regulate A.I.? Oh yeah!
Let’s be very clear: the E.U. has recently demonstrated that no one can be beyond the law and that the Internet – that is to say, its actors, such as GAFAM: Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft) – cannot behave and act with impunity. Such an attitude must be manifested with regard to AI as well, but it must be even stricter and more anticipatory. In the case of the Internet (search engines, use of personal data, social networks, etc.), they must be regulated with a certain amount of delay. However, in the case of AI, we support the need for them to be closely supervised and regulated as soon as possible to force their creators (and users) to work within already drawn regulatory lines. And that any development outside of them is strongly punished financially (because if the money we put in does not give more money in the future, no more interest in investing). In short, it is up to us to protect ourselves by campaigning to achieve this objective. Especially since the European Parliament has already legislated in this direction – on March 13, 2024 and, now, it is up to the European Council to ratify this law. And we will be able to put pressure on the Council more easily, given that it is made up of heads of state/governance of EU countries, even more dependent on us than the members of the European Parliament).
What about the future?
Warning: as we are not a predictive AI, we will give you three future scenarios until 2027 and cross our fingers that at least one holds up.
Most likely scenario: 65-70%.
Plethora of AI for companies, States etc. (“specialized” and “professional” according to our classification above), who, from more or less chaotic beginnings, manage to perform well. There will be a few AIs for everyone (those that we have designated as “public”), paid which perform well and free, good only for the “union minimum”. No A.I. “general”, because creating it will cost a lot of money and it will not bring the recommended benefits. Seen overall, people's lives are improving and we will live better than before the arrival of AI. However, in detail, there will be people who will live much better than before: they are those who will have understood the best the advantages to be gained from the arrival of A.I. and will find themselves in it (working in close liaison with them). There will also be those who, understanding what awaits them in the future, will have informed themselves and prepared in advance and will benefit from the benefits brought by the use of A.I. in professional and/or private life. Lately, it is those who, due to lack of information/preparation, will suffer the shock (loss of work and reduced income, benefiting from lower quality services, social downgrading, etc.).
Unlikely scenario: 25-30%
“General” A.I. will be created and will take almost all the positions previously occupied by humans. As a result, the lives of some people begin to deteriorate (loss of work leading to reduced income, social downgrading, etc.). A minority – those who work closely with them – thrive beyond any common sense. There will be protest movements and states will be forced to intervene to contain the negative effects, without much success. Over time, people will get used to living worse than before the arrival of AI.
Unlikely scenario: 0-5%
After a promising start which saw the emergence of a swarm of AI in the most diverse fields, it turns out that the profits expected by investors will not be there and, therefore, the investments made are not recovered with a margin minimal or even entirely in certain cases. “The next day that sings”, that so many experts predict today for AI, turns out to be, in reality, a dead end. Most people's lives will not be affected – barring, possibly, some inflationary surge. There will be losers, those who have bet a lot or everything on the rise of AI and who will find themselves ruined or doing jobs that will no longer be in demand.
Black Swan
A “general” super AI, which will surpass humans (“super-intelligent”), will be created and those who control it will want to take power in the most powerful States with the ultimate objective of dominating the world. Inevitably, a war will break out, the outcome being uncertain, but the world as we know it today will no longer exist.
Announcement: in the first part of April, the article “The Intelligence of A.I. – true or scam/advertising?”
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