Today's Iran, governed by a theocratic regime, views itself as a descendant of the ancient Persian Empire and boasts a history of approximately 2,500 years, characterised by both periods of prosperity and challenges. Additionally, Iran serves as the primary center of Shiism, one of the two major branches of Islam, the other being Sunni.
Historical and Religious Perspectives
The conflict between Sunni and Shia in Iran is one that many historians and experts refer to as the "millennial fratricidal conflict." In this context, it is important to note that the regimes in several countries targeted by Iran are Sunni, which significantly influences the strategies and objectives of the Iranian theocratic regime.
Objectives and Means
The primary objective is to establish a state that encompasses at least part of the territories that once constituted the Persian Empire. This state would be governed by the current theocratic regime in Iran, with Shiism as the dominant religion. Religion serves as a tool to achieve this goal, particularly through the influence and control of Shiite populations in the targeted countries. Additionally, the widespread animosity towards Israel, prevalent among many in the Arab and Muslim world, is another means through which this objective is pursued. Iran regards Israel as its principal enemy and seeks its destruction for several reasons.
Popularity and Influence
Iran would significantly enhance its popularity and influence among the Arab and Muslim populations if it succeeded in defeating Israel or at least weakening its power. This could be accomplished either indirectly, through attacks by its allies such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen, or through direct military actions, like those on April 14 and October 1, 2024. Such a surge in popularity could then be leveraged to incite uprisings against the existing regimes in countries targeted by Iran. If successful, the overthrow of these regimes could result in the establishment of pro-Iranian puppet governments.
Israel's Technological Superiority
Israel possesses overwhelming technological superiority over its neighbours, including those targeted by Iran. If Iran were to succeed in defeating Israel, it could potentially acquire some of this advanced technology, thereby gaining a significant advantage over these countries. While this scenario may be more fanciful than realistic, the Iranian theocratic regime remains undeterred in its aspirations.
The Historical Connection
Historically, the land that is now Israel was part of the ancient Persian Empire at various points in time, a fact also noted in the Bible. This historical connection further fuels Iran's desire to defeat and conquer Israel.
The "Great Satan" against the Persian Empire
Iran has branded the United States as "the Great Satan," viewing it as public enemy number one alongside Israel. This animosity stems primarily from America's role as Israel's strongest and most steadfast ally. The U.S. presents a vision of social and political ideals that starkly contrast with the values upheld by the theocratic regime in Tehran. Having experienced such a model during the reign of the Pahlavi Shah, Iranians might yearn for it even more given the current "benefits" of their religious leadership. Moreover, the United States bolsters countries that fall within Iran's sights, creating a protective shield that deters direct attacks as long as American support endures. However, should the U.S. withdraw or lose interest in the region, Iran would find itself with a free hand, ready to unleash its ambitions against those nations it seeks to dominate. In this geopolitical chess game, the withdrawal of the American knight could open the board for Iran to claim its longed-for territories, reminiscent of its ancient imperial past.
Target Countries
Beyond Israel, Iran is eyeing several nations that encompass significant portions of the territories of the former Persian Empire. These include Syria, Iraq, the Persian Gulf countries, Jordan, Yemen, Lebanon, and Armenia, with Turkey and Pakistan potentially on the horizon. Some of these nations, like Syria and Lebanon, are already within Iran's sphere of influence, while others, such as Iraq and Yemen, are becoming increasingly susceptible to its grasp. Though there are additional regions that once formed part of the ancient Persian Empire—such as Egypt, certain Greek islands, and Afghanistan—Iran does not currently consider these as direct targets. To realise its ambitions, the Iranian theocratic regime must effectively "conquer" these countries. In pursuit of this goal, a comprehensive plan was devised long ago, structured in multiple stages. These stages need not occur in a specific order; actions in one phase can seamlessly intertwine with those in others, creating a complex tapestry of influence and control. Each move on this geopolitical chessboard is a calculated step toward reviving the grandeur of an empire long past.
Step One: Get Control
The first stage of Iran’s strategy seeks to establish total control over countries with significant or majority Shia Muslim populations, including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. During this phase, Iran exerts indirect control through local political, economic, and military actors, such as Shia groups in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen. In Syria, Iran-affiliated Shia militias and Hezbollah forces are crucial for sustaining the current regime. Once certain conditions are met, Iran plans to fully integrate these nations into its expanding sphere of influence, weaving them into a tapestry of power that echoes the grandeur of its historical empire.
Step Two: The West Falls Asleep
In this stage, Iran aims to lull the United States, along with France and Great Britain—essentially the West—into complacency, hoping they will lose interest in the countries targeted by the Iranian regime and withdraw their presence. Currently, aside from Israel, several of these nations receive substantial military support from the U.S. and its allies, which includes arms and ammunition as well as the deployment of troops to strategic locations like Qatar, Jordan, and Iraq. These forces stand ready to intervene if necessary, serving as a bulwark against Iranian ambitions. Iran’s strategy hinges on creating a perception of stability that encourages the West to turn its back, allowing Iran to pursue its goals with less scrutiny and opposition.
Step Three: Breaking the Chains of Sanctions
This stage seeks to unlock access to global financial and commodity markets, which remain partially closed to Iran due to international sanctions imposed for its support of terrorist movements and ambitions to develop nuclear weapons. Iran aspires to tap into modern technologies that far surpass its current capabilities, as the country has been under a technological embargo for years. This isolation has left its domestic technology lagging, like a ship stranded in a harbor while others sail the seas of innovation.
Step Four: The Best Defense is to Attack!
An effective strategy involves launching calculated attacks on the targeted countries, employing specific means and methods tailored to each unique context. It’s important to clarify that Iran currently lacks the military, technological, economic, or demographic resources to directly assault these nations, either now or in the foreseeable future. Thus, patience becomes a virtue as Iran waits for the "favorable opportunity" to strike. Strategic planning is crucial, requiring the development and coordination of political and military organisations poised to act when the moment is ripe. This approach has proven successful in the past, allowing Iran to navigate the turbulent waters of geopolitics with cunning and foresight, like a predator waiting for the perfect moment to seize its prey.
Iran and Iraq: The Half-Brothers
In 2003, a "favourable opportunity" emerged with the American intervention that led to the ousting of Saddam Hussein and sparked a process of "democratisation" in Iraq. Iran skillfully seized this moment: the Shiite majority in Iraq was mobilised to establish militias that were officially integrated into the Iraqi army, as well as political parties loyal to the Iranian theocratic regime. These organisations became instrumental in diminishing American influence in Iraq. A pivotal step in this endeavour is the withdrawal of U.S. troops still stationed in the country. Should this occur—though it seems unlikely—Iran could execute its strategy to consolidate political power in Iraq through its loyal parties. Ultimately, this could pave the way for a union between the two nations, transforming them from estranged half-brothers into a unified front, bound by shared interests and aspirations.
Syria and Future Potential Alliances
In 2011, the first peaceful pro-democracy demonstrations were met with brutal repression by the regime of dictator Bashar al-Assad, igniting an armed revolt that spiraled into a full-blown civil war. Iran quickly positioned itself as a key player, backing the regime by forming various armed Shiite militias. At Assad's request, Hezbollah intervened in support of the regime starting in 2012, weaving itself into the fabric of this conflict. By around 2017, Assad's regime achieved a tenuous victory, largely thanks to the alliance of pro-Iranian Shiite militias and Hezbollah, bolstered by a Russian contingent—an early glimpse of the future Russia-Iran alliance we will explore later. Today, while the Assad regime exercises authority across Syria, it is the Hezbollah and Iranian-controlled Shiite militias that truly hold the reins, ensuring the dictator’s grip on power remains unyielding, like a shadow that cannot be shaken off. As the landscape shifts, the potential for new alliances looms on the horizon, further complicating an already intricate geopolitical tapestry.
Lebanon and Hezbollah
Hezbollah, a Shia organisation founded in 1982 with the mission of combating Israel, has evolved into a significant force over the decades, gaining importance and popularity through a series of confrontations with the Israeli state. Alongside its military ambitions, Hezbollah has cultivated a robust political party and established various financial, social, and charitable institutions, weaving itself into the very fabric of Lebanese society. Its successful military intervention in Syria further bolstered its strength, enhancing its credibility and influence not only within Lebanon but also beyond its borders. Today, Hezbollah stands as the dominant political force in Lebanon, a powerful player in the nation’s complex landscape. Throughout its existence, Hezbollah has received substantial support from Iran, encompassing advisory, financial, military, and political assistance. Religiously, the organization is subordinate to the Iranian theocratic regime, making it appear as a close ally and, in many ways, an extension of Iran itself—a steadfast vine intertwined with a larger, powerful tree. As Hezbollah continues to grow, it shapes the geopolitical contours of the region, further entrenching its role in Lebanon and beyond.
Yemen and the Houthis
In 2004, the Houthis, a Shiite organization, ignited an uprising against the government and swiftly seized control of much of Yemen. Their rise has sparked several conflicts with Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf nations, which intervened to support the government. This dynamic is one reason these countries often turn a blind eye, or even tacitly approve, of Israel's actions today. In 2024, the Houthis showcased their support for Hamas in Gaza by attacking ships navigating through the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea on their way to the Suez Canal. Despite numerous air raids and the presence of U.S. and allied warships in the region, maritime traffic faced disruptions on multiple occasions—a significant victory for the Houthis. What underpins their success? Since the beginning, they have been funded, armed, and trained by Iran's theocratic regime, which has cemented their loyalty. According to their strategic plan, the Houthis are poised to strike at Saudi Arabia whenever a favourable opportunity arises, ready to unleash their ambitions like a coiled spring waiting to be released.
Gaza and Hamas
Iran has consistently supported Hamas, supplying the organization with funding, weapons, tactical and operational advice, as well as military training for its members. In 2007, Hamas seized power in Gaza and managed to hold onto it until recently. Over time, the organisation has grown stronger, weathering confrontations with Israel in 2008, 2012, and 2014. The attack on October 7, 2023, marked an escalation in its conflict with Israel, prompting Israel's decision to dismantle Hamas entirely. As of October 2024, the war in Gaza has entered its final phase, and Hamas has been effectively erased as a fighting force. Those who managed to escape—the "survivors"—might resort to guerrilla tactics against Israeli forces. Yet Israel's ambitions do not end there; since September 2024, it has begun targeting Hezbollah in an effort to eradicate that threat as well. This escalating conflict is a steep price that Iran must pay for its alliance with Putin's Russia, as the geopolitical landscape shifts like the tides, bringing both peril and opportunity.
Russia's Trap and Its Deceit
In late 2022 or early 2023, Iran forged an alliance with Putin's Russia, a partnership that initially seemed like a golden opportunity for Tehran. In exchange for Iran's military support, Russia promised to deliver modern technology and advanced weaponry, including aircraft, new-generation tanks, and long-range missiles. Iran met its commitments with impressive zeal, supplying Shahed drones that were heavily utilised by Russia in the Ukraine conflict, along with tons of ammunition and missiles in August 2024. However, the October 7 Hamas attack was a calculated orchestration by the Iranian regime, transforming into a massacre that allowed Putin to redirect Western attention and resources away from Ukraine and towards Israel. Yet, in a cruel twist, Russia has failed to fulfill any of its promises, delivering nothing but empty assurances. This betrayal has dealt a severe blow to the Iranian regime’s grand aspirations, revealing the alliance to be a snare rather than a support—a web of deceit that has ensnared Iran in a perilous trap, leaving its dreams in tatters. In conclusion, this alliance is proving to be a treacherous trap for Iran, one that could ultimately precipitate the downfall of the theocratic regime in Tehran. By remaining steadfast in its commitments to Putin and Russia, Iran risks sacrificing everything it has painstakingly built over time. It has already begun to lose its grip on Hamas and now faces the looming threat of losing Hezbollah as well. The situation continues to deteriorate as Iran edges closer to a direct confrontation with Israel. In a misguided effort to protect its allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, the Iranian regime made the grave error of launching drone and missile attacks on Israel on April 14, 2024, followed by ballistic missile strikes on October 1, 2024. Israel has retaliated, and future responses are expected to be even more severe, accelerating the unraveling of the theocratic regime in Tehran. Like a house of cards, the regime stands on the brink of collapse, with each aggressive action further destabilizing its fragile existence.
The Inevitable Fall
The downfall of the Iranian theocratic regime is an impending storm, with the script already written: mass demonstrations against political power reminiscent of those in 2009 and 2022. While the intensity and frequency of these protests may vary, the regime will respond with the same brutal ferocity as before. However, this time, nations such as the United States, France, Great Britain, Turkey (NATO), and possibly Saudi Arabia are likely to intervene to prevent a "massacre of civilians" or some similarly urgent formulation. How will Russia and China respond? They will unleash a barrage of statements, issuing proclamations that echo across the diplomatic landscape without effecting any real change on the ground. They may orchestrate protests, issue strong condemnations, and draft resolutions in the UN Security Council. Yet, beneath these symbolic gestures lies a stark reality: Russia, in dire need of North Korean troops, ammunition, and weaponry to sustain its war in Ukraine, lacks the resources for meaningful action. Meanwhile, China will be hesitant to jeopardize its vital oil and gas supplies. Thus, the regime's fate hangs in the balance, poised for a fall that seems as certain as the setting sun.
The Future Looks Bleak
As of today, October 24, 2024, the collapse of the Iranian theocratic regime appears inevitable. The pressing question now is whether this unraveling will occur before or after the dismantling of Hezbollah. The answer hinges on the intensity of Israel's response to Iranian attacks, such as the one on October 1, 2024, and any future provocations. The stronger Israel's reaction, the sooner the protests are likely to erupt, igniting a spark that could quickly consume the regime. Like a powder keg waiting for a match, the situation is volatile, with each escalating confrontation bringing the inevitable fall of the regime closer to reality. In this high-stakes game, the countdown has begun, and the echoes of discontent may soon crescendo into a full-blown uprising.
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