Macron is working hard to achieve what even Napoleon Bonaparte failed: to bring down Russia/the Russian Empire, by helping Ukraine win this war (which has become existential for both countries).
Our thesis: Macron’s “credo” is that he has the mission to make France a leading power in the world. And from February 2022, achieving this objective necessarily involves the destruction of Russia following the war in Ukraine. So, it was up to Macron, the President of the French Republic, to lead the efforts of the Allies supporting Ukraine in its war against Vladimir Putin's Russia. Moreover, today, he is the only leader in place to have the stature required to oppose Vladimir Putin. And Macron did not fail in the task (in the shadows yesterday, in the open today). We'll tell you about all this below.
The failure of the partnership with the Russians
Let's be clear: Macron wanted a partnership with Russia (and, consequently, with Vladimir Putin). Twice in the past, in 2017 and 2019, Vladimir Putin was received in France with honors and treated as a close friend. After the second meeting, as a guarantee of his desire for this partnership, Macron went so far as to affirm that “what we are experiencing is the brain death of NATO” and asked for “greater involvement” of NATO against “terrorism” in the Sahel (the fight against terrorism, where Russia is treated as a partner). The February 7, 2022 interview in the Kremlin (remember, the one where the two are seated with a huge white table between them) was a last attempt on the part of Macron to reason with him (convince him to give up invading the Ukraine and enter into a partnership with France and the EU). Missed. As leader, Vladimir Putin is rather incapable, far from the image that is projected to us (which is only a beautiful "facade" behind which the interstellar void is hidden) and he understood nothing of the offer that Macron made it in 2017 and subsequently renewed it; for him, Macron, who entered politics very late and without any experience as an apparatchik (like Biden or Scholz, the German chancellor) was just a kid who wanted to play in the “big guys” league. As a result, each time, he royally snubbed him and his offer of partnership; not for a single moment did he understand that Macron is a shark, a predator of a worse species, who, flouted, will destroy him and his Empire, the Russian Empire, if an opening opens up for him . And the first military and economic blows will quickly arrive, once Russian troops return to Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
First shots
Good to know: France does not shout from the rooftops about what it is doing for Ukraine; and, even when we are spoken to, we might suspect that everything will be revealed (for example, it was announced the cessation of 12 Caesar cannons to the Ukraine, only to learn later that we actually delivered 18! ). Even more blatantly, on February 26, 2024, Macron literally declared: “There is no consensus today to send ground troops in an officially accepted and endorsed manner. But in dynamics, nothing should be excluded. We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war.” The double (triple?) pleonasm is, of course, knowingly used by the President (even though he holds a degree in philosophy and is married to a French professor!) to leave no doubt that French forces were already there. When, where and what are they doing there? A mystery and, most likely, it will remain so for many years. Which doesn't stop us from speculating below.
1. Military blows. In the first days of the war, some stray information in the media spoke of several dozen Ukrainians or French of Ukrainian origin, members of the Foreign Legion (the famous elite corps of the French army, renowned as being a best in the world), were allegedly caught deserting to go to Ukraine; and everything stopped there, there will be no more information after that. However, the fact that seasoned soldiers with several years of “Legion” discovered themselves “patriots” and decided to leave everything from one day to the next questioned us. And we believe we have the answer after reading, a few weeks later, that several elite Russian units were wiped out by “Ukrainian special forces” (for example, the 331st “para” Regiment, which its commander praised as "the best/the cream of the crop"; around March 12, 2022, the main column was ambushed and suffered numerous losses, the commander and his officers included).
2. And economical. The E.U. was renowned as an organization that took weeks and weeks, even months, to make important decisions, those with a major impact. However, between February 23 and 28, 2022, the E.U. took three sets of sanctions against Vladimir Putin and Russia, some of a harshness never seen in the past (the freezing of the assets of the Russian Central Bank amounting to around 200 billion euros, ban on broadcasting in the European area for media Russia Today and Sputnik, closure of airspace for Russian aviation etc.). Officially, it was the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs who proposed them; unofficially, they could not even have been on the table without being “sponsored” by a very big “heavyweight” who only Macron could be (and he had an interest!). It was his warning shot to Vladimir Putin who did not understand it (or did not want to understand). Subsequently, Macron decided to send Caesar cannons to Ukraine (without going into boring technical specifications, we simply tell you that it is the weapon dreamed of by all artillerymen).
The Caesars enter the game
…and the Russians toast. Seriously. In the month of April 2022, the Ukrainian army receives 18 (a quarter of the French army's endowment!). They are immediately used against the Russian forces in the North of Donbass moving towards the South to link up with the forces coming from there (with the aim of encircling the Ukrainian army of Donbass and conquering this region) . Result: the Russian forces are annihilated, the junction will never take place and the battle of Donbass is lost. And the epic of the Caesars is only at the beginning. The next stop: Snake Island (near the strategic city of Odessa, but also on the Romanian side, its influence allowed the Russians to completely control the Black Sea and threaten the city). By using them intensively during the month of May 2022, the Ukrainians made it impossible for the Russians to maintain control over the island from which they withdrew on May 31 (after having suffered large losses in men and war equipment).
Anecdote: while the Ukrainians (most likely under the leadership of French artillery) were destroying everything the Russians were massing on the island to defend it, Macron made his famous declaration “We must not humiliate the Russians/Vladimir Putin”. The “Dummies” and “Moons” (read “Why this blog”) were never interested in the implied continuation of this sentence, which should be: “we only want to destroy them (and for that, we gave Caesars to the Ukrainians!). Subsequently, the next victory is not obtained on the battlefields, but in the cozy offices of Washington: in order not to "lose face" in the war in Ukraine, a "coalition" of industrialists and members of Congress forced the Biden administration to give more efficient weapons to the Ukrainians (notably the HIMARS multiple rocket launcher brilliantly used to cause very heavy losses to the Russians and win the Battle of Kherson in the fall of 2022). And to finish, let us note the words of a Ukrainian defender in Avdiivka: "we cannot lose the city as long as the Caesars defend it" (the city ended up falling after almost five months of combat, but the Russian losses in men and materials of war were colossal). However, the Ukrainians will not use the Caesars during the fall 2022 offensive in the Kharkiv zone (eastern Ukraine); after having liberated more than 20,000 square km, they had to stop due to a lack of efficient tanks (heavy battle tanks) in sufficient numbers to go further. France does not have many of these machines and is not a producer either, which did not prevent Macron from figuring out how to obtain them for Ukraine, however.
And so, what did Macron do?
Remember: at the very beginning of the war, Ukraine's Allies (under pressure from the Biden administration!) imposed restrictions on themselves, restrictions/prohibitions on military aid to be provided to the Ukrainians). Western tanks were part of it. Macron had this ban canceled on January 4, 2023 (incidentally, in a pivotal moment for the Russians, in complete disarray after a Ukrainian strike on New Year's night causing the death of several hundred soldiers). To achieve this effect, Macron did not just have to open his mouth and declare that “France will send AMX 10 RC light tanks to the Ukrainians”. In the era of the domination of social networks (of the Internet in general), the media and public excitement caused by the use of the word "tanks" is assured (regardless of the fact that, in fact, the machine above above has in common with real tanks only the name and a vague external resemblance). Subsequently, the United Kingdom announced the sending of 14 Challenger 2s, which are real tanks, heavy, efficient and efficient. And the pressure has skyrocketed on the Germans (who are the main producer and seller of tanks in Europe with their Leopard) and on the Americans (who have a few thousand Abrams tanks in stock). Despite bitter resistance, the Scholz – Biden couple will end up giving in and giving tanks to the Ukrainians (not in sufficient quantity and not in time, for reasons that belong only to Biden, Scholz not being that his lackey Biden's conduct in relation to this war will be the subject of a future article on our blog). Emboldened by success with tanks, Macron will do it again on January 28, 2023 with planes.
Macron and the planes
The epic “Western fighter planes for Ukraine” began in December 2022, when President Zelensky, in his speech to the English Parliament, asked for “help for Ukraine”. The efforts and requests of the Ukrainians seemed to be in vain, receiving refusals from everywhere. When, suddenly, on January 28, 2023, Macron intervened, pronouncing his favorite phrase that “nothing is excluded”. And it’s another ban that comes up, despite opposition from Biden expressed firmly only a few hours later. At the time, sponsored in the shadows by Macron, a coalition of European countries - Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium (yes, you read correctly, we are talking about Belgium, it's not a joke) sets up to deliver American F 16 fighter jets to the Ukrainians. Unfortunately, their delivery dates are constantly being pushed back due to delaying tactics employed by the Biden administration, citing various pretexts. While waiting for them to be finally delivered (because that will happen one day, sooner or later), France has already started to give the Ukrainians something to arm them with (50 AASM glide bombs per month from February 2024). Alas, Macron will lose the next battle, that for the delivery of long-range missiles to the Ukrainians.
Failure to obtain long-range missiles
Good to know: To resist and defeat Russia, Ukraine needed long-range missiles (which can reach targets located between 80 and 300 km beyond the front lines, in the parts occupied by the Russians, Crimea included). In order to supply them, negotiations carried out in the shadows by France and the United Kingdom resulted in an agreement to deliver the Franco-British SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles. The first, Storm Shadows donated by the British, arrive in May 2023. Unfortunately, neither the Germans (the other European producer) nor the Americans (despite having a huge stock of ATACMS missiles, even more efficient and more easier to use than European ones) are not following suit. Two months later, Macron himself entered the arena, making the thunderous public announcement of the delivery of several dozen SCALPs. We hoped to initiate the dynamic leading to the delivery of German and American missiles to the Ukrainians. Missed. Despite the fact that, on the military side, the results are there (destruction of ammunition and fuel depots in Crimea and elsewhere, warships belonging to the Russian Black Sea Fleet; on September 25, 2023, even the HQ of the Fleet is destroyed, the Admiral commanding and his General Staff are killed). And that the Ukrainians make official and solemn commitments that they would be used only on targets located in Russian-occupied Ukraine. Nothing can change the refusal of the Biden – Scholz couple to provide them. So, this time, contrary to what happened before with tanks and planes, Macron has partially failed. However, he will take his revenge by obtaining significant progress in Ukraine's accession process to the EU.
Ukraine in the EU thanks to France? Oh yeah!
From 2014, Ukraine began an extensive program of structural transformations (political, economic, institutional) with the aim of being admitted to the EU. And it is Putin's fear that one day Ukraine will join the EU, which pushed him to attack it on February 24, 2022. However, the war led by the Russians has only 'to embolden Ukrainians in their desire to join the E.U. And the Union responded “present”: after having granted it the status of “candidate” on June 24, 2022, the invitation to start negotiations for membership came on December 8, 2023 (i.e., only 18 months later - unheard of, the previously returned countries spending at least five years in this “antechamber”). Although there is still the negotiation phase, for us there is no doubt: once the war is over, Ukraine will join the EU. shortly. In fact, the President of the European Commission, through a speech delivered at the site of the Boutcha massacre on April 8, 2022, even announced the color stating: “at the end of this war, we will help Ukraine to rebuild itself while Russia will sink into decomposition.” Although that moment is still far away, it is sufficient to say today that the E.U. has not failed in its financial and military support that it provides to Ukraine directly (we mention the last one, decided on February 2, 2024, in the sum of 50 billion euros spread over 4 years, but there are many others). And that, even if its arms industry is lagging behind, the pieces are falling into place to meet Ukraine's needs in the not-too-distant future. Which is more than necessary given the absence of aid from the Americans today and that, even if that one comes back one day, it will not contain that Ukraine needs (read “Big lie” and “Biden and Ukraine” on our blog to understand everything). But how did the EU arrive at such steps, rather far from its sphere of usual activities/interests? Because it is obvious that only the determination of the Ukrainians, the reforms they make despite the war and the victories they obtain (tactical victories in 2022, strategic victories in 2023) could not have been so profitable. without the support of a very powerful “godfather”. Who can only be Macron, because who else? German Chancellor Scholz? And even when it’s not the E.U. who are directly involved are the member countries of the EU. (or associated, the case of Norway) than do, as the so-called “Czech” initiative shows.
The “Czech” initiative
Ukraine needs enormous quantities of munitions to hold the front and it is its Allies who must provide them. When, at the beginning of the year, Ukraine announced that it was going to run out of ammunition, the Czech Republic immediately announced that it would be able to procure a huge quantity (800,000 artillery shells) from countries outside the EU provided that there is funding. Unsurprisingly, the financial package begins to come together and, subsequently, the possibility of another purchase of 500,000 coins is announced. Congratulations and lots of joy: today (April 2024) the first deliveries are already on their way to Ukraine to arrive in May. These quantities will allow it to last until European industry manages to meet Ukraine's needs on its own. In this atmosphere of rejoicing, a “sensitive” question is evacuated without even being mentioned: how could a small country in Central Europe, which is far from being a major player in the international arms trade, secure such quantities of ammunition? Simple: we acted on behalf of a power that did not want to be in the spotlight. That is to say, France, which is perfectly in line with the “modus operandi” that it employed at the start of the war in Ukraine. In addition, over time other clues were added: visits by Macron to the Czech Republic (to congratulate them directly for their good work) and to Brazil (one of the main suppliers for the above ammunition and where Macron was awarded the highest distinction in the country – worth the check he brought, of course). And when we hear, briefly, that another supplier could be Egypt (with which France has a very good business history in the field of armaments!), for us there is no doubt that lies behind the “Czech” initiative. However, it was for the last one that Macron was able to act decisively while remaining in the shadows; developments both on the Ukrainian front and in the ranks of the Allies forced him to come out and officially assume command of the Alliance which supports Ukraine in its war against Ukraine in front of everyone. Russian invader/occupier. And when it happens, it happens on a grand scale, to make an impression and increase the burden for the Russians; therefore, with the typical French finesse but also with the force of a heavy cavalry charge of yesteryear. But, we will tell you about all that in our next post: Macron, into the light.
Comments