Macron is working hard to succeed where even Napoleon Bonaparte failed: to bring down Russia/the Russian Empire. And the current context of the war in Ukraine works in its favor.
What context?
At the end of February 2024, the situation is serious for the Ukrainians: they have lost the battle for Avidiivka and are short of ammunition and men. American aid has been at a standstill for several months and that from European Allies is still insufficient. Doubts seemed to be taking root vigorously – both in Ukraine and in Europe and the United States. The Russians are pushing very hard in the hope of bringing about the fall of the Ukrainian front which would allow them to advance over hundreds of square kilometers at once. It was at this moment that Macron emerged from the shadows and officially assumed command of the Alliance supporting Ukraine in its existential war against Vladimir Putin and Russia in front of everyone.
Macron in charge? Yes!
On February 26, 2024, through a thunderous declaration (which we have already cited in "Macron: in the shadows"), Macron announces: I am the Commander-in-Chief of the Alliance for Ukraine! And for the Russians, the message is that we would intervene to stop you if you managed to advance deep into Ukraine. Initially, the Allies' reactions to Macron's statements were rather moderate, simply saying that they were not considering sending military forces to Ukraine. However, not only that Macron is not backpedaling, but he is even putting a coin back into the machine by calling those who do not join him "cowards" (press conference, Prague, March 5, 2024). The Russians are agitating behind the scenes to obtain firmer reactions against Macron. The Germans and Biden are doing so because, in fact, they are working undercover so that Ukraine does not win the war against Russia. The German Defense Minister firmly declares that there will be no NATO troops (including France) on Ukrainian soil. Biden also castigates Macron's warlike position and clearly announces that he will not send American forces to Ukraine (on March 8, 2024, before the Congress and Senate gathered in solemn session to listen to the annual report "State of the Nation"). Vladimir Putin is happy: the "unruly kid, the teenager" Macron was disciplined by his American and German "parents". For him, therefore, everything is back to normal, and he can continue to dream that one day he will be master of Ukraine. It was a misunderstanding of him and Macron is trying to make them understand how wrong they are. And, he will soon vigorously counterattack.
Macron counter-attacking
On March 14, 2024, Macron appeared before the Nation in a television interview to teach everyone an amazing lesson about “strategic ambiguity”. Without reproducing the elements of the interview, we only tell you that he transmitted a clear message to Putin: we are not going to let you win the war against Ukraine, even if we should act directly against you, Vladimir Putin, and against your soldiers. But how, when, or by what means? Mystery, of course (obligatory, because the concept of "strategic ambiguity" requires that the adversary is kept in the strictest blindness of your plans and the means that you will use if necessary). And Macron does not stop there; the next day, leaving a meeting with the German and Polish leaders, he frankly announced, without ambiguity: "Perhaps at some point... we will have to have operations on the ground, no matter the type, to counter the Russian forces”. The words are direct and harsh, putting the other Allies against the wall: either you follow me, and we win the war together or you stay outside and miss the victory, the glory and its dividends. Some of the Allies, the Poles, the Baltic States, Finland give a half-hearted positive response. The others are silent, even Biden and the Germans who were very vocally opposed a few days earlier. However, it is the French army which will speak afterwards.
The French army enters the game
The President has spoken (better said "he has ordered") and the French army carries out its first mission: reputed as "The Silent", suddenly it turns into "The Talker". On March 15, 2024, the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces (the "Big Boss" of the French army) declared "The exit point from the war in Ukraine concerns us more than the fate of Ukraine. This concerns the security of the entire continent". And he adds that the army is still capable of acting "autonomously" if necessary. On March 19, it was the Chief of Staff of the Army (the "Infantry Boss") who signed an article in the daily "Le Monde" stating that France can mobilize 20,000 soldiers in 30 days and that it even has the means to command a coalition army corps of 60,000 soldiers. He adds that “The French army is preparing for the toughest engagements, making it known and demonstrating it”. And to end with a bang, he also declares that France itself has what it takes for "nuclear deterrence" (in fact, to dissuade the Russians from starting to blabber about "nuclear war" once again). March 21, once again it is the "Big Boss" who speaks saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin constructed his manoeuver with the idea that the West will never go to Ukraine but will be content to provide weapons: "we have to show him that he won't be able to use this logic to get to the end, because this idea is not true". On April 5, 2024, the "Infantry Boss" (in an interview with Radio France Culture) also attacks Vladimir Putin and Russia by speaking of the use of force "today uninhibited" and "used openly" by the French army. And that's not all!
What else?
Good to know: the French army has very well equipped training camps; in addition, they recreated an entire city on a 1:1 scale to train and prepare for urban combat. However, recently (end of March 2024), the French army has left the city and is making its preparations in real cities, out in the open, in the eyes of a population who watch the soldiers carrying out their war exercises as if watching a live film. At the same time in the media, several generals and senior officers (retired or in civilian life) professionally carry out the mission of praising the prowess shown by the French army in the numerous combat missions executed in recent years. The criticisms of yesteryear – forgotten, today place the odes for its professionalism, its skills and abilities to accomplish the missions received. Additionally: scenarios of what French forces might do once moved into Ukraine were all over the media. For the most part, they are completely harmless (training of Ukrainian troops, mine clearance, logistics). However, there is another scenario also envisaged: French forces to guard the border with Belarus and free tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers immobilised there (and the war equipment that comes with it) for the front. And that’s where it hurts, because Belarus is Vladimir Putin’s Achilles tendon.
For what?
Small aside: officially, Belarus is a separate country, an independent state; unofficially, it is an extension of Russia (remember: this is where the main Russian attack started). This country is under the rule of the dictator Lukashenko, stooge of Vladimir Putin. He, just like his master, wanted his people's support for his regime. So he called the presidential elections in 2020, only to lose them to the opposition candidate, Svetlana Tikhanosvskaia. Unfortunately, the result was hijacked, Lukashenko proclaimed herself the winner and she had to leave the country and form a government in exile. And now let's imagine the rest of the scenario with French troops guarding the border with Belarus: once they are in place, demonstrations for democracy will begin all over the country (very likely with the help from the Ukrainian secret services and certain Allies: the Poles, the Baltic States). The regime will reprimand them brutally (because, in any case, it does not know how to react otherwise). A call from the government in exile and a French force will quickly march towards Minsk, the capital of Belarus, to stop the massacre of civilians and remove the dictator in power. The Belarusian soldiers, under-equipped and under-trained, will not put up any real resistance (who would want to fight an experienced and renowned army like the French army on behalf of a dictator who, in any case, would be passing?).
Subsequently, Vladimir Putin will lose Belarus. Do you think this is impossible? We remind you of Macron's words on February 26, 2024: "...in dynamics, nothing must be excluded". And it is exactly for this purpose that the French army trains in urban environments, aiming to storm official buildings (knowing that the fighting in Ukraine is mainly carried out in trenches reminiscent of the Great War 1914 -1918). And again, this is not the worst scenario for Putin, but another.
So what will be the worst-case scenario for Putin?
French forces to guard the border with Russia, which could lead to two potential deadly/destructive developments for him.
Firstly, a missile or a hovering bomb – which the Russians commonly use today in Ukraine – and which have the unfortunate tendency to fall hundreds of meters, or even further, from their target. A failure, French forces attacked (most likely by mistake) and France will activate article 5 of the NATO Treaty demanding that the organisation go to war against Russia. As France is a very big "heavyweight", the answer can only be positive, that’s clear. And the easiest targets will, of course, be Russian forces in Ukraine. But there is the other potential development which is even more dangerous.
The second, an intervention force sent to repeat the ride of the Wagner of June 2023. And it was an irregular force, of mercenaries, which was able to arrive close to Moscow in less than 24 hours (from Ukraine!), without encountering any resistance. Imagine how far a French military force, highly trained and equipped with the latest war equipment, could advance (and what it could do!). And if, however, there is anyone who believed that the Russians still have forces to protect Moscow, think again: there is nothing left there! How come? Remember that the four attackers who carried out the concert raid on March 22, 2024 in Moscow came, killed and injured so many people and, afterwards, were able to leave peacefully without being bothered by any armed force. Of course there is always the possibility of a nuclear response, but, once again, make no mistake: only in the movies you can launch a nuclear strike in seconds. In real life, Americans and French need at least 24 hours to prepare it. And the Russians? Given what they are showing in Ukraine, we can even strongly suspect that they would not be able to launch it in less than one day. However, in the next 24 hours, Moscow and the Kremlin will fall into the hands of the French and Putin's power will be gone. The best part is, it doesn’t even have to come to that; it is enough to create the appearance that the Russians are forced to take measures to avoid one of these two scenarios.
And what steps can they take?
Plan A. The Vice-President of the Russian Parliament (the only one capable of expressing himself reasonably in the language of Molière) was urgently dispatched for an interview with French media on March 21, 2024. The subject: threatening France with a nuclear strike. The result: pschitt (as was predictable, because France has its own nuclear weapons and in a much better state than that of the Russians). Plan A failed, time for the alternative.
Plan B. A very well equipped army, in the vicinity of Moscow, a sufficient armed force with tens of thousands of soldiers, tanks and armoured vehicles, for the "case or… ". And it is this force that will not go to the Ukrainian front too, so they will be blocked close to the capital. Not today, when the Russians still have the upper hand and the Ukrainians lack everything (men, weapons, ammunition). Even if today is the day they should pull out everything to break through the front, to break the morale of the Ukrainians and make the Allies strongly doubt the merits of continuing aid for Ukraine. Because it will be too late tomorrow: towards the end of the summer, the F16 planes will arrive, the shortages in men and ammunition will be made up and the Ukrainians will manage to stabilise the situation on the front. The favourable moment for the Russians will have passed and the front will no longer move until the end of January 2025. However, Vladimir Putin and the Russians will not do that because, in reality, they are only small players (strong with the weak-like Biden and Scholz, but fearful in the face of tough people like Trump and, today's Macron). This is how Macron will obtain his victory this year against Vladimir Putin. And even much more.
More what?
Let's be clear: there will be several effects/consequences of Macron's warlike posture today and we'll talk to you briefly below (and much more in a future article on our blog).
1. The weakening of Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement Nationale Party. An Eurosceptic party (critical voice of the transfer of national powers to the EU), wanting more national sovereignty and, supposedly, restoring France's image in the world . We opposed Macron's statements accusing him of wanting to send the "children of France" to their deaths. Over time, we will lose more and more credibility, because we cannot advocate a "stronger" France and position ourselves against a posture putting it at the forefront and ensuring preeminence over other Allies. of Ukraine (with the Americans and Germans in the lead).
2. Take the lead in the EU. France imposes itself as the protector of the EU, thanks to the strength of its army and the fact of being the only one with nuclear weapons. She also appears to be its de facto leader, because the increasingly strong mobilisation to support Ukraine is taking place under the leadership of France. "Strategic autonomy", which Macron advocated a few years earlier and which seemed a fantasy at that time, is now becoming an imperative and it will be built under the guidance of France, of course.
3. First-tier power. We live today in a world gone mad, where principles more or less respected for decades are now falling by the wayside. It’s a world where the United States of the Biden administration no longer solves anything (subject of our post "Hot spots in the world: the United States", to appear soon). And it is now that France, as the standard bearer/speaker of the EU, will establish itself as a first-rank power. A first sign in this direction: Macron's visit to Brasil where he decreed the death of the free trade treaty with Mercosur (the Union of South American Countries) in its current form. Another version must replace it, one which should do (very) well for ecological standards. And Macron spoke about all this, with the arrogance of a lord addressing his subjects, in front of the President of Brasil who listened to him in a "standing still" position.
4. Big boost for Trump. Trump constantly repeats that the war in Ukraine is Biden's fault (because, as President, Putin would not have had the courage to start it). Also, he accuses Biden of being "incapable" of stopping the war and imposing peace (which he will do in 24 hours once elected). In short, he describes him as being "powerless" against Putin. And it is precisely this image that Biden projects to the Americans today, in comparison with a Macron who is more warlike than ever and ready to do anything to stop Putin's advance in Ukraine (even if it means sending French soldiers to fight there).
Future scenarios
We strongly advise you to throw aside what "The Morons" and "The Dummies" (read "Why this blog?") tell you about the war in Ukraine every day in the media. Even if we are not a "predictive" AI (read "AI, dream, nightmare or damp firecracker" on our blog), we give you our opinion that the Ukrainian front is and will remain almost frozen until the end of January 2025 (when the new President of the United States returns), considering several scenarios.
1. Most likely scenario: 65-70%
Faced with the possibility of French troops arriving in Ukraine to guard either the border with Belarus or that with Russia, Vladimir Putin will order the creation of a powerful armed force ready to intervene to defend the Lukashenko regime or his own. The rest is already known.
2. Unlikely scenario: 25-30%
Vladimir Putin will throw all Russian forces on the front against the Ukrainians who fail to hold it and must retreat over tens of square kilometers. French forces will arrive to guard the border with Belarus and, subsequently, the above "Belarusian scenario" will begin. Vladimir Putin will be forced to repatriate significant forces from Ukraine to defend his regime, which has been greatly weakened by the fall of Belarus. Subsequently, the Ukrainian front stabilises (it is even possible that the Ukrainians will go on the offensive again once the F16s arrive).
3. Unlikely scenario: 0-5%
French forces come to guard the border with Russia. When the bulk of Russian forces find themselves in Ukraine approaching important cities (Kharkiv, Odessa), the order to leave for Moscow will be given. You already knew the rest.
Teaser: on November 5, 2024, there will be presidential elections and Americans will have to choose whether Trump or Biden will be the next President. At the end of November, we will share with you our analysis with regard to the evolution of Macron/France from the end of January 2025 depending on who will be the winner.
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