North Korea can be described as a vast open-air prison, one of the most oppressive and dehumanizing societies in modern history. By comparison, the Nazi concentration camps of World War II might paradoxically be considered to have offered relatively higher levels of comfort, while the conditions in the Soviet gulags in Siberia, located in the harsh Arctic regions, most closely resemble the torturous existence in North Korea. This totalitarian regime endures and sustains itself largely through the strategic support of China, whose motivations often remain unclear. Beijing may view North Korea as either a large-scale social experiment or as a crucial geopolitical buffer. As of the fall of 2023, the dynamic between China, Russia, and North Korea is undergoing significant changes, largely due to the destabilizing influence of Vladimir Putin. With Russia's resources increasingly stretched due to its prolonged war in Ukraine, the Kremlin has become desperate for North Korea's support to sustain the conflict. This shift in the balance of power is raising serious concerns in Beijing, where anxieties about the future of relations with these two troubled neighbours are growing. While China remains engaged in a regional power struggle, it is now being forced to reassess the impact of this evolving alliance. What follows is a short presentation of the country and a brief analysis of the implications of these developments, along with some speculative forecasts offering a perspective on the potential future trajectory of this tense geopolitical triangle.
The Unpredictable Dynamic
North Korea is located in the northern half of the Korean Peninsula in East Asia, with a population of approximately 25.8 million—roughly half that of its neighbour, South Korea. Its capital, Pyongyang, serves as an important political and cultural center. To the north, North Korea shares a 1,416 km border with China and a shorter 19 km border with Russia. To the east and west, the country is bordered by the Pacific Ocean, providing it with both geographical and military strategic significance. To the south, North Korea shares a 238 km border with South Korea, separated by a demilitarised zone (DMZ) that spans about 2 km in width. Though referred to as "demilitarised," this area is, in reality, one of the most heavily fortified regions in the world, patrolled by over a million soldiers on both sides. The heavy military presence along the DMZ is a direct legacy of the Korean War (1950–1953), which ended without a formal peace treaty, leaving the peninsula in a technical state of war. This tense border highlights the complexity of relations between the two Koreas and underscores the strategic importance of the Korean Peninsula in the broader geopolitical landscape of East Asia.
Geographical Context and Strategy
In 1910, the Korean Peninsula was annexed by the Japanese Empire, beginning a period of severe colonial rule that lasted until the end of World War II. With the surrender of Japan in 1945, the peninsula was divided into two spheres of influence: the north came under the control of the Soviet Union, and the south under the administration of the United States. Attempts to reunify the two regions through diplomatic negotiations failed, resulting in the formation of two separate governments in 1948. In the north, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea was proclaimed, under a communist regime led by Kim Il-sung, and in the south, the The Republic of Korea, with a democratic government. In 1950, North Korea invaded South Korea, sparking a devastating conflict known as the Korean War, which lasted until 1953. After three years of violent fighting and great loss of life, an armistice was signed that it ended hostilities but not the conflict itself. To date, no formal peace treaty has been signed, meaning that the two countries technically remain at war, and the risk of renewed hostilities is always present.
A Brief History of Division and Conflict
The demilitarized zone (DMZ), established to separate the two Koreas, plays a crucial role in preventing potential invasions from either side. However, the DMZ is heavily fortified and closely monitored, making it one of the most militarized regions in the world. Since 1953, the two Koreas have followed vastly different paths. South Korea has transformed into a modern, prosperous democracy, known for its rapid economic development and open society. In contrast, North Korea has remained under the control of a totalitarian communist regime that evolved into a highly repressive dynastic dictatorship, marked by international isolation, strict population control, and widespread human rights violations. This deep division continues to shape the geopolitical dynamics of the region and profoundly influence relations between the two states.
The 'Juche' Doctrine: The Pillar of the Kim Dynasty
The "Juche" doctrine is an absolutist ideology designed to support and consolidate the power of the Kim dynasty in North Korea. It portrays the supreme leader not merely as a political ruler but as an almost divine figure—stronger, wiser, more capable, and more revered than any other authority, including deities. The leader must be loved, respected, and obeyed unconditionally, above all other beings, whether mythical or real. This doctrine was created by Kim Il-sung, North Korea's first communist leader, and was officially incorporated into the country's constitution in 1972. Officially, Juche advocates for political independence, economic self-sufficiency, and military autonomy. In practice, however, the application of these principles has been quite different. Although Juche promotes political independence, it has ultimately led to the establishment of a dynastic dictatorship. After Kim Il-Sung's death, power passed seamlessly to his son, Kim Jong-il, and following his death, Kim Jong-un assumed absolute leadership. Thus, the "Juche" ideology legitimizes a dynasty that sustains a totalitarian regime, maintaining control through the cult of personality. While in theory Juche supports economic independence, the reality is that the North Korean economy is far from self-sufficient. The country is heavily reliant on imports of goods and food, most of which come from China, its only significant ally. This dependence on external support, compounded by systemic economic mismanagement, has created a fragile economic situation. And the imports are insufficient to meet the basic needs of the population, resulting in chronic shortages. The famine of the 1990s, known as the "Long March of Suffering," claimed the lives of between 600,000 and 3.5 million people out of a population of 22 million. The famine was caused by a combination of failed agricultural policies, natural disasters, and the government's decision to prioritize military and ideological projects over humanitarian needs. The situation remains largely unchanged, with the population continuing to face severe shortages of food and other essential goods. Censorship and strict control over information make it difficult to obtain accurate data about the country's internal conditions. However, evidence clearly indicates that many citizens continue to die annually from starvation and other deprivations, all within a climate of extreme isolation and widespread human rights abuses.
North Korean Military Strength: Rhetoric and Threats
North Korea's military autonomy is primarily reflected in the presence of a vast and omnipresent security apparatus, designed to maintain strict control over the population and ensure absolute loyalty to the regime. In parallel, the government promotes the image of a formidable army of over a million soldiers, which state propaganda claims are highly trained, equipped with the most advanced weapons, and capable of confronting any global military force. This image is further reinforced by the country's nuclear arsenal, which provides additional leverage and intimidation on the international stage. However, behind these grandiose claims, the reality is quite different. While North Korea does possess nuclear weapons, their primary purpose is to ensure the survival and continuity of the Kim regime.
The use of these weapons is reserved for extreme scenarios in which the life or authority of the supreme leader is directly threatened. Although the regime frequently makes threatening statements regarding the use of its nuclear arsenal, these are largely rhetoric intended to deter external intervention and strengthen domestic control. There was also extensive discussion about the lack of combat experience. As of November 2024, the North Korean military has had no significant combat experience and no feedback from other militaries involved in recent conflicts. Its military tactics and strategy remain anchored in the lessons learned from the Korean War (1950-1953), making them largely obsolete in the context of modern conflicts. In November 2024, the North Korean military engaged in the conflict in Ukraine alongside Russia, which may bring some improvement in its combat capabilities. However, these changes are not expected to occur quickly or in a substantial way.
Putin and Kim Jong-un, in the shadow of Ukraine
Kim Jong-un had a "complicated" relationship with Donald Trump during his first term. After Joe Biden's arrival in the White House, many expected this moment to be an opportunity for North Korea. Biden, a supporter of democracy by words, should, in theory, have been a more favourable partner for Kim Jong-un (see article Biden versus Trump). However, the COVID-19 pandemic and China's mishandling of it have turned North Korea into a "collateral victim." As China's economy experienced increasing difficulties, aid to North Korea declined in both volume and intensity. Thus the already existing famine and scarcity were considerably aggravated. In this context, Putin's request in the fall of 2023 to receive ammunition provided North Korea with a significant opportunity to make up for the shortfall in Chinese aid. Kim Jong-un responded by supplying Putin with considerable amounts of ammunition in exchange for a steady flow of food, which helped alleviate the country's food crisis. However, we do not agree with the opinions of many "experts" and "specialists" who claim that Putin would be able to provide advanced technologies to North Korea. The main reason for this is that Putin lacks the resources to facilitate such a technology transfer. The majority of Russia's technicians, engineers, and resources are already dedicated to the war effort in Ukraine. Additionally, such a transfer could provoke China, a crucial partner for the North Korean regime. While there is a clear interest in strengthening ties between Russia and North Korea, Putin understands that he cannot afford to antagonize Beijing, at least not at this time. As a result, exchanges between Russia and North Korea remain largely focused on essential resources, such as food and ammunition, rather than advanced technology, which could destabilize the delicate balance between the three nations.
Current Geopolitical Situation
Recently, Putin has become increasingly reliant on North Korean soldiers to sustain the war effort against Ukraine. Kim Jong-un has sent approximately 12,000 soldiers, who have already been integrated into the front lines, and it is highly likely they are already engaged in combat. Given Russia's immense military needs, their numbers are expected to rise, as Putin’s demand for additional troops shows no signs of abating. This military involvement will strengthen the relationship between North Korea and Russia, creating a form of mutual aid based on a simple exchange: soldiers and increasing quantities of weapons and ammunition, in return for food and potentially some limited technology. However, deepening this collaboration could reduce both countries' dependence on China. While Beijing remains a key player in sustaining the regimes of both North Korea and Russia, this growing relationship between the two nations will inevitably diminish China’s influence over their geopolitical and geo-strategic decisions. As a result, China will remain an essential partner for both regimes, but this shift in the dynamics of international relations could lead to a reconfiguration of alliances and regional power structures. The potential implications are significant, especially regarding the balance of power in Asia and beyond.
Will North Korea Transform in the Future?
It is important to recognize that, historically, North Korea and the Kim regime have been almost entirely dependent on foreign aid—food, goods, finance, and technology—which has primarily come from China and Russia, often with little meaningful reciprocity. This dynamic has been central to the survival of the North Korean regime for decades. However, this reliance is gradually coming to an end. North Korea’s future is likely to look very different, as emerging changes suggest a realignment of geopolitical relations. In an era defined by major economic and geopolitical crises, Kim Jong-un and his regime will continue to navigate multiple fronts, strengthening alliances with Russia and potentially seeking new partnerships to secure resources critical for their survival and development. While North Korea’s dependence on China will not disappear entirely, the relationship is expected to become more balanced, granting North Korea greater influence and autonomy in its geopolitical decisions. As a result, the future of the Kim regime may involve a blend of strategic realignment and economic adjustments, aimed at reducing vulnerabilities to external pressures. These changes will not only impact regional relations but also have broader implications for the global balance of power, as rivalries between major powers continue to shape international politics.
The Most Likely Scenario
By 2025, the war in Ukraine will likely enter a phase of heightened intensity. Ukraine will receive more consistent support from the United States under the leadership of Donald Trump, as well as increased aid from the European Union, whose production capacities will expand significantly. In this context, Vladimir Putin will become increasingly reliant on North Korea, led by Kim Jong-un, for weapons, ammunition, and soldiers to sustain the war effort. In return, Russia will be compelled to provide North Korea with vital resources, including food and technology, which the Kim regime needs to maintain its economy and strengthen domestic control. As this dynamic unfolds, Kim Jong-un will grow less dependent on China, gaining greater freedom of action and the ability to resist Beijing’s pressure. Meanwhile, China will face an intensified trade war with Trump’s America, which will place additional strain on North Korea. To counter this, China may incite North Korea to take provocative actions on the Korean Peninsula, aimed at drawing international attention and diverting pressure away from Beijing. These actions, likely to be dramatic, will not significantly alter the balance of power on the Korean Peninsula, and relations between South Korea, the United States, and China will likely remain relatively stable. In essence, both Russia and China will continue to rely on North Korea, with Kim Jong-un playing a crucial role in maintaining the regional geopolitical balance. While he will provide the requested support, he will do so strategically, ensuring that his actions strengthen his position and maximize his gains. At the same time, Kim will seek to preserve a degree of independence from the major powers, maintaining leverage and autonomy in his dealings with them.
The less likely scenario
In the first half of 2025, the war in Ukraine could potentially reach a ceasefire, reducing Putin's dependence on North Korean support. In this case, the flow of food and resources to North Korea would diminish significantly, and Moscow would likely cease providing advanced technology. As a result, Kim Jong-un would find himself once again reliant on China, forced to align with its directives. As tensions between China and the Trump administration escalate, Kim might face pressure to adopt a series of provocative measures, such as launching missile tests, deploying troops and military equipment near South Korea’s borders, or even taking more aggressive actions, like bombing South Korea or launching missiles at Japan. However, it is unlikely that Kim Jong-un would go as far as initiating a direct attack. The risks of such a conflict are simply too great, and an open war could jeopardize not only his regime but his life as well. Despite external pressure, Kim would likely seek to avoid full-scale war at all costs, opting instead for calculated provocations that allow him to assert power without crossing the threshold into open conflict.
The least likely scenario
In this scenario, the war in Ukraine ends, and Putin no longer requires North Korea's assistance. As a result, resource deliveries to Kim Jong-un, including food and technology, cease. At the same time, there is no significant trade war between China and the United States, and China interprets the stabilization of international relations as a sign of weakness on the part of the Trump administration. Faced with domestic political and economic pressures, Xi Jinping launches an attack on Taiwan, viewing it as an opportunity to strengthen his global position (for more details, see "Global Hot Spots: Taiwan"). In this scenario, Xi orders Kim Jong-un to launch an attack on South Korea to force the United States to open a second front, diverting its resources and attention away from Taiwan. Without Russia's support, Kim finds himself in a difficult position with limited options. He is most likely to avoid open conflict, instead resisting pressure and limiting actions to provocative gestures, such as rocket launches and troop mobilizations along the border. A direct attack on South Korea would only occur if the conflict between China and Taiwan were to evolve in a way that greatly favoured the Chinese regime, creating a perception of American vulnerability in the region. In our view, however, this scenario is highly unlikely.
The Black Swan
While there is always a risk of provocative actions, open war between North and South Korea would only break out if a major misstep occurred, creating a "casus belli." Such a miscalculation could stem from the North Korean military's lack of proper training and outdated or faulty equipment. However, Kim Jong-un will do everything in his power to avoid direct conflict. He is more likely to resort to provocative actions aimed at gaining strategic advantages without risking an all-out war.
Update From the Frontline
President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use advanced long-range U.S. weapons inside Russia, as North Korean troops deploy to assist Moscow's military efforts. This decision comes as Russia has deployed nearly 50,000 troops to Kursk, a southern Russian region where Kyiv launched its surprise counteroffensive during the summer, in preparation to retake the area.
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