“I want Romania. If it falls into our arms, we will quickly reach Ukraine and the road to the West will be wide open”. Vladimir Putin, addressing his henchmen.
Our thesis: This year, Romania will hold all its elections: local and European (in June), presidential (in September) and parliamentary (in December). Vladimir Putin needs them to be won by people/parties who are favorable to him. If he managed to achieve this objective, the fall of Ukraine would be near and a boulevard towards the center (and the West) of Europe would open. Fortunately (for us, for the West), this is unlikely. We'll tell you about all of this below.
Update: December 9, 2024
Starting in June 2024, elections for the European Parliament and the Romanian Parliament were held, with pro-European forces (PNL-PSD, USR, and independent candidates) securing significant victories. The so-called "sovereignist" forces, which are, in truth, instruments of Russian influence under Putin, suffered decisive defeats. A potential catastrophe was averted on Friday, December 6, when the Constitutional Court annulled the presidential elections. Consequently, the process will restart from the beginning. The reason? Călin Georgescu, a relatively unknown candidate, won the first round and was well-positioned to claim victory in the second round scheduled for December 8.
The Pawn of Putin's Russia
However, after his initial success, the mask slipped, revealing a figure emulating Corneliu Zelea Codreanu, with ideological echoes of Horia Sima and Adolf Hitler. In reality, Georgescu is a pawn of Putin's Russia, tasked with undermining Romania’s ties to the EU and NATO to serve Moscow’s agenda. Despite this, pro-Russian supporters within Romania and abroad have loudly condemned the Constitutional Court’s decision, labeling it a “coup d'état,” an “attack on democracy,” and “the theft of the people’s votes.” Let it be clear: this blog stands firm in its position. Pro-Russian candidates with allegiances that threaten Romania’s sovereignty and European alliances must not be allowed to participate in the democratic process.
Fundamental Principles of Law
The most fundamental principle of law, surpassing even individual statutes and the Constitution, is this: Romania must be safeguarded from anyone who seeks to harm it. Any candidate who questions, whether overtly or subtly, Romania's membership in the EU, NATO, or its alignment with the coalition supporting Ukraine—comprising the EU, NATO, and other allied nations—is unequivocally serving as a tool of Russian influence under Putin. Such a candidate must be disqualified to protect the nation. It is the responsibility of the Central Electoral Bureau and the Constitutional Court to uphold this supreme principle of law—to shield Romania from those who would endanger its sovereignty and stability. To clarify: democracy means the people choose their leaders. However, it is not the role of the populace to determine who adheres to or violates the nation's laws, Constitution, or core legal principles. Nor is it their role to decide the consequences for such violations. That duty rests with the institutions entrusted to preserve the integrity of the state.
Scenarios for the Presidential Elections
Most Likely: 60-65%. No pro-Russian candidate is permitted to run. The Central Electoral Bureau disqualifies their candidacy due to irregularities in their files, and subsequent appeals are dismissed by the courts.
Less Likely: 25-30%. At least one pro-Russian candidate is allowed to participate. However, they face intense criticism from other candidates across media and social platforms, resulting in a poor electoral performance.
Unlikely: 5-10%. A pro-Russian candidate advances to the second round, facing a pro-European opponent. Despite widespread attacks through media and public channels, their performance remains weak.
Russian influence around Romania
Let's put it clearly: Romania is surrounded by neighbours ready to jump into the arms of Vladimir Putin/Russia. In the North-West, it is Hungary with its Viktor Orban who is loyal to the Great Bear. To the West, Serbia. The Serbs still believe that they lost Kosovo because of the EU (not because of their conduct close to genocide towards the people there) and are convinced that Vladimir Putin will help them to recover Kosovo if necessary. In the South, we have Bulgaria. The country was under Turkish occupation for around 700 years before being supposedly "liberated" by the Russians (the Russo-Turkish War of 1877 – 1878. FYI: the war began with two successive defeats suffered by the Russian army and the Russians had to beg Romania to enter the war on their side; the contribution of the Romanian army and, even more, of its military strategists – led by King Carol I, a former Prussian officer - was decisive in winning the battle of Plevna; following the fall of Plevna, the Turkish front collapsed and the war was won by the Russians. Unfortunately, this part of history is obscured in the story of this war!). Despite the pivotal period of communism (imposed by the Soviets at the end of the Second World War) and their membership in the EU and NATO, the Bulgarians remain favorable to the Russians even today and will not hesitate to align with them in case of need. The other neighbours are Moldova to the East (former Romanian region taken by the Soviet Union abusively in 1940, today extremely poor and almost without resources and without an army) and Ukraine in the North, very dependent on Romania, in fact.
Ukraine dependent on Romania? Oh yeah!
Romania is essential for Ukraine both militarily and economically.
1. Militarily. Firstly, Romania helped Ukraine with 15 (fifteen) arms packages. Secondly, the bulk of arms deliveries to Ukraine go through Romania (because the route through Poland, so much invoked, is only to lure the Russians). Thirdly, the future of Ukrainian aviation equipped with F16's is being prepared there (pilot training, repair centers and support, rescue airfields, etc.). And for a “fanfare” ending, know that the French intervention to support Ukraine will take place from Romania, if it ever happens (which will be the subject of our next post).
2. Economic. Many Ukrainian goods are exported via Romania, especially since neither land nor rail routes have ever been blocked (like Poland). Even more, from August 2023, Ukraine began sending goods by sea, in increasing quantities, following a route that passes through the maritime zone controlled by Romania (where the Russians refrain from driving ships, fearing entering into conflict with a NATO country). So, to bring down Ukraine and, subsequently, achieve the main objective - to remake the Russian/Soviet Empire dominating a good part of Europe (like before 1989) - Vladimir Putin should control Romania, like in the past.
Romania under Russian control
Yes. Several times in the past, the Russians have exercised more or less tight control over Romania. After the Second World War, they even occupied the country until 1958, from when control was exercised through intermediaries. Their reign ended in the 1980's, when the dictator Nicolae Ceausescu consolidated his power enough to impose his own policies. In December 1989, the “Revolution” (a popular revolt against his dictatorship which had become unbearable several years earlier) brought him down and opened the way to the democratisation of the country. Alas, the Russians took advantage of this, managing to hijack it with the help of their faithful Ion Iliescu, at the top of the list (who subsequently became President and had Ceausescu killed very quickly, on Christmas Day 1989, for prevent him from revealing that the Revolution had been hijacked for the benefit of the Russians).
In The Orbit of Russian Power
What followed were 6 (six) long years during which Iliescu maintained his hold on the country and kept it in the orbit of Russian power (rather powerless, fortunately, thanks to the incapable President Boris Yeltsin). However, a democratic political life and a market economy were established and developed, despite opposition from Ion Iliescu and his acolytes. It was the work of a segment of Romanian society – Angelo and George, the two authors of this blog, included – who worked tirelessly to orient Romania towards the West, towards the EU and NATO. And it is through this path that the end of Russian control over Romania came.
End of the Russian control
The 1996 elections were won by Emil Constantinescu (who came from the associative world), as a President, and by a heterogeneous coalition of democratic parties - some created after the Revolution, others being "historic" parties (those active before the second world war, when Romania was a consolidated democracy and strongly oriented towards France which served as a model in all areas, whether in culture, politics, education, law etc., when Romania was seen in at the time as the little sister of France and its capital, Bucharest, was nicknamed “little Paris”). This new power broke sharply with the previous pro-Russian orientation and projected itself strongly towards the West, with the culmination: total support for the NATO war against Serbia in 1999 ( to stop the massacre in Kosovo). Unfortunately, this orientation, rather minority in the Romania of that time, coupled with the numerous errors they made in government led them to the loss of the parliamentary and presidential elections of the year 2000.
Anecdote
Even being in the opposition, Ion Iliescu kept a huge influence on mass media and managed to increase in the preferences of the Romanian electorate a certain Corneliu Vadim Tudor - nothing other than the Romanian clone of Jean–Marie Le Pen from France. And the final of the 2000 Romanian presidential election was played between him and Ion Iliescu, anticipating the match between Chirac against Jean–Marie Le Pen in 2002, and Macron against Marine Le Pen in 2017 and 2022 (a reason of pride for Romania, for once in its history, it is France which has copied the “Romanian” model!). Becoming President again in 2000, Ion Iliescu wanted to renew with the policy of obedience towards the Russians where Vladimir Putin had just come to power - that's when George made the decision to leave (project finalised in 2003 by the final departure for New Zealand).
Towards the West
Fortunately (for Romania) that, in the meantime, its' "old guard" faithful to Russian communist ideals was replaced by a new team in deep veneration towards the God "money". And since the money mainly came from the EU, then Prime Minister Adrian Nastase and his government kept the orientation towards the West (and even accentuated it, to the tune of money coming from there, as a payment for the political and military support that Romania gave for the invasion of Iraq by the United States in 2003. This was after the support shown in 1999 ended up paying off: in 2004, Romania became a member of NATO. Moreover, accession to the European Union was within reach, with only one main obstacle remaining: quasi-institutionalized corruption in favour of Adrian Nastase and his acolytes.
The "Rough-and-Ready" Option
Message understood five out of five by the Romanians and the opposition parties who, united under the banner of Traian Basescu (former commander of commercial ships, a typical “rough-and-ready” political figure) won the parliamentary and presidential elections of 2004. Corruption, although still present in Romanian society, was beginning to be strongly combated thanks to a new generation of pro-European prosecutors led by Laura Codruta Kovesi (today the head of the European Anti-Fraud Prosecutor's Office, who is sowing panic in the ranks of corrupt people throughout the EU). Subsequently, Romania became a member of the EU in 2007 and Traian Basescu's party won the parliamentary elections of 2008 and himself the presidential elections of 2009. Unfortunately, as the anti-corruption campaign necessarily approached the centers of power in place in parallel with the advancement before the Courts of Criminal Cases targeting Adrian Nastase and his acolytes, resistance is being organised.
Suspending Basescu
In 2012, Nastase was sentenced to prison for corruption and this was the signal for the revolt against President Basescu, seen as the author of this coup. Some of the parliamentarians from Basescu's ruling party defected and joined forces with the opposition to suspend him with a view to removing him from power by referendum. As it was botched, the Constitutional Court annulled it and kept Basescu in power. Unfortunately, his party lost the parliamentary elections the same year and his last years as President counted for peanuts. It's time for Angelo, in turn, to decide to leave for France permanently (project finalised in 2015). In the ranks of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), which took power in 2012, the rising star Liviu Dragnea will attract the attention of Russians.
2014 – 2019, Dragnea's era
Dragnea becomes the strong man of the PSD at the end of 2014; following the defeat of Victor Ponta, Prime Minister and President of the party, in the presidential election of 2014. He was committed to the Russians and Vladimir Putin (who, following the capture of Crimea and part of Donbass in Ukraine, began to look to the West and wanted to extend its control over Romania too). However, this guy was more interested in getting rich. In addition, he demonstrated a rarely known ability to surround himself with people incapable of projecting him to power. Which meant that despite the manoeuvers on the part of Dragnea and his acolytes, Romania continued to move closer to the West and reject Russian influence; it was also thanks to the combination of a private sector which was developing by force with the will of a population which already moved (and worked and lived) freely throughout Europe and wanted to keep all the advantages of being member of the EU and NATO. The fall of Dragnea in 2019 – imprisoned for corruption cases – caused Vladimir Putin to lose his main ally in Romania. But he did not want to give up and created the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) Party.
Who is AUR?
AUR is a sovereigntist party, the Romanian clone of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally Party in France. They started well in the 2020 parliamentary elections with 10% of the Romanian vote; today, April 2024, polls give them around 20% of the voting intentions of Romanians. At the same time, Diana Ivanovici Sosoaca (who broke up with AUR with much fanfare in March 2021 and, subsequently, stood out with “crazy” type behavior) is credited at 10%. As for Vladimir Putin, the situation is serious (because the war in Ukraine is not at all the reality of the facts, while Europe, galvanised by a Macron more offensive than ever, is mobilising more and more against him), he would find a way out if Sosoaca and AUR won this year's elections. Will they succeed in winning? There is strong doubt, given the wishes of the Romanians.
What do Romanians want?
Romanians want responsible and capable leaders. A stable, predictable and pro-business environment – businesses; higher incomes and a significant drop in inflation – which was 16% last year and the forecasts for this year are not optimistic – the population plus efficient public services (which is far from being the case today when many civil servants are incapable and corrupt). Also, that the threat of the Russian Empire is removed, which requires the defeat of Russia in Ukraine. Unfortunately, in view of this year's elections, they will have to make the choice between a mitigated form of the plague and an increased form of cholera.
Who is "cholera"?
AUR and Sosoaca and all those who revolve around them – the puppets of Vladimir Putin.
Let's be very clear: they declare themselves to be "sovereigntists" or "patriots", putting the interest and love of their country above any other value. And advocate limitless sovereignty – implied without being in alliance/union with other countries – with the idea of being able to act without any interaction/limit posed by the framework of an alliance – like NATO – or Union – like the EU. In reality, they are only "agents of influence" in the service of Russia and are working relentlessly to severely weaken Romania in order to make it fall into the hands of their "employer", Vladimir Putin. They are the ones that the Romanians must avoid at all costs, choosing them to prevent Romania from taking the path followed by Russia (which could be fatal to it – as the Romanians will be able to say "Goodbye" to any way of good life). Romania was before in this dire situation, during 45 years of intense and damaging communism, into a sort of a North Korean type of concentration camp universe where there was famine, the lack of almost all products and no freedom to speak, think and move freely. But also, because they are totally incapable of managing the slightest thing (business, enterprise, administration, etc.) and they will only seek to enrich themselves by any means and as quickly as possible (like Russian oligarchs). In other words, they will do what the Alliance is doing today, but ten thousand times worse (and with the blessing of their "master" Vladimir Putin of course). Therefore, they must not gain power, even if means at the limit of acceptability, or even beyond, must be used.
What does it mean?
This means that the Alliance must not hesitate (and we advise it not to hesitate) to "pay the price" to win this year's elections by using all means to achieve this objective, including:
1. Show that AUR and Sosoaca are "sold" to Vladimir Putin and the Russians (which is the truth, in fact), but also that they have no experience and are, therefore, totally incapable of leading the country (again, perfectly true);
2. Gathering evidence of support from various powerful allies (as was the case with the Congress of the European People's Party, the largest group in the European Parliament, organised in Bucharest on March 7, 2024 which benefited the PNL, as member, but also to the PSD represented by Mircea Ciolacu, as Prime Minister);
3. Increase in aid, pensions, blocking of prices controlled by the State and many other measures aimed at giving people the illusion of having more money and, therefore, living better (at least until what the elections pass);
4. Increased control over the mass media and activation of all networks of influence to ensure that those who depend on the public administration – and there is a good number in Romania – vote "correctly".
5. "Arrangements" during vote counting, or winning using the enemies tools. And all this before the eyes and even with the blessing of the EU, which will have every interest in Romania staying on the course it has today. With all this, the outcome of the elections should be known in advance. And for the readers that are horrified by this last suggestion, a day of living under Russian's Putin rule will convince you that "any means" are necessary.
So what will it be?
Let us remember that the elections were carefully planned to maximize the Alliance's chances of winning the elections. Thus, the elections for the European Parliament, where the vote is given for one party – and therefore, where AUR would have to win more votes - were coupled with local elections where it is the candidate who counts. And here, it is the Alliance which has the strong advantage having local networks and well-recognized candidates with a lot of influence at the local level (most often, they already occupy the targeted elective functions); it is certain that they will have a maximum chance of being re-elected and they will make the Alliance win the "European" elections too. Once the "locals" have passed, the local elected officials will get to work so that the Alliance candidate becomes the next President who, in turn, will do what is necessary for the Alliance to win over the "parliamentarians".
And the future?
It is obvious that this year's elections will not solve the many problems of today's Romania, unfortunately. The result – anticipated and sought – will only prevent their amplification beyond the limit of acceptability (i.e., a relapse into the 90's, or worse). But, to move the country forward, to pull it upwards, more, much more is needed. What is "Plus" and by whom? We, the authors of this blog, have answers, of course, but can we give them and, even more, ask others to implement them? Announcement: next title on our blog "Macron, into the light".
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