Update: Trump secured a decisive victory over Kamala Harris. The Republican Party has taken control of the Senate and is well-positioned to win the House of Representatives as well. While we predicted an advantage for Trump over Harris, we did not foresee the scale of his triumph (an oversight on our part). At the end of this article, you will find some forecasts regarding what to expect from his upcoming term.
On November 5, 2024, the United States will hold a pivotal presidential election, a defining moment for both the nation and the world. Each political camp, along with its supporters, promises significant changes. These changes are framed optimistically by those anticipating victory for their side, while opponents perceive them with scepticism. A review of the international media landscape reveals a prevailing trend: pundits, analysts, and commentators worldwide frequently express criticism of Trump and his supporters. However, we urge you to take a step back and not be swayed by their narratives.
The reality is that any significant changes with genuine and lasting impact will not materialise until, at the earliest, the first two years of the new administration. Until then, we can expect a barrage of heated statements and media controversies that will fuel intense yet fleeting debates—akin to a "tempest in a teacup." One issue will quickly give way to the next, leaving only a faint echo of previous discussions. In this objective analysis, we will delve into the electoral race and its implications, presenting clear arguments regarding the competition for leadership of the free world.
The Complex Landscape of Political Leadership
This year's election campaign has been characterised by a series of unexpected developments, beginning with the matchup between Trump and Biden, and continuing with Trump's challenge against Kamala Harris, who assumed the candidacy due to the current president's physical limitations. Trump's signature style was on full display throughout his campaign, delivering precisely what his supporters anticipated; he deserves recognition for his consistency. In contrast, we find Harris' campaign to be disappointing. It failed to effectively engage with key issues that could have attracted votes from millions of neutral Americans who do not align with either the Democrats or the Republicans. Notably, she could have leveraged Trump's criminal record, particularly the conviction in which he was declared "guilty," as well as the civil case alleging financial misconduct by his company. The moral and legal controversy surrounding abortion rights, which was overturned at the federal level by a Supreme Court comprised of three justices appointed by Trump, remains a sensitive issue for many Americans, particularly women. This topic played a significant role in the Democratic Party's success during the 2022 congressional midterm elections. In summary, throughout this campaign, Kamala Harris has been perceived as a "queen without a crown," while Trump emerges as a "phoenix," symbolizing a potential dramatic resurgence. This interplay is vital, as it foreshadows the developments and possible outcomes of a future administration, whether under Harris or Trump.
Harris: The Queen Without a Crown
A classic fairy tale tells the story of an emperor who believed he was dressed in the finest clothes, with all his courtiers supporting his delusion. Everything changes when a child shouts, "The emperor is naked." This analogy can be applied to Kamala Harris, who stepped in to replace Biden after the failed debate with Trump. From the outset, both the Democratic Party and its supporters—including journalists, analysts, and celebrities—portrayed her as a saviour. However, over time, her performance, characterised by a dull, simplistic approach lacking in confidence, significantly eroded the initial enthusiasm. The public began to understand why, as vice president, she was seen as a nearly invisible figure. Nonetheless, she delivered a standout performance in the debate with Trump on September 10, managing to regain some of her lost popularity. In the absence of another debate and as the campaign fell into predictability, Kamala Harris' lead began to stagnate. Just a few days before the election, she finds herself practically neck and neck with Trump, consistently losing ground to him. Despite this setback, she still has a chance to win, particularly due to early voting, which typically favours the Democrats. These votes were cast while Harris was still riding the momentum from the debate and the support of various celebrities, including Taylor Swift. With only two days left before the election, all opinion polls show Kamala Harris in second place behind Donald Trump, narrowly winning the popular vote but losing to him in "swing" states. This situation reflects a complex electoral dynamic that is likely to influence the final outcome of the elections.
Trump: Rising from the Ashes
After the events of January 6, 2021, Trump left the White House through the back door and retreated to Florida. Democratic Party strategists, fearing the rise of the charismatic Ron DeSantis, worked to bring him back into the spotlight in 2022. Once back in the limelight, Trump leaned into what he knows best: showmanship. This approach proved successful, making DeSantis appear disengaged and allowing Trump to deliver a "knockout" blow to Biden during the debate on June 27, 2024. When Kamala Harris stepped in for Biden, Trump and his team had to recalibrate their strategy. Initially, Harris surged ahead in the polls, putting Trump at a significant disadvantage. However, his consistently strong performance, in contrast to Harris's weaker showing, allowed him to narrow the gap considerably by early September. A less successful appearance in the debate on September 10, coupled with the mobilisation of major stars like Taylor Swift, once again gave Harris a significant edge. Yet, Trump remains unfazed; he is calm and continues to campaign in his characteristic style. As a result, just days before the election, he finds himself tied with Harris in the polls. The voting trend is currently favourable for Trump; a few additional weeks of campaigning could have tipped the scales in his favour. However, the election is set for November 5, and his victory is far from guaranteed. Nonetheless, analyses and preparations within European chancelleries for a possible Trump return suggest that he may have the best chance to win. It remains to be seen what the immediate future will bring!
Evaluation of Election Results
The first estimates will be published immediately after voting concludes, with official results beginning to emerge a few hours later. Initially, states where a candidate's victory is secured by a clear margin will be reported. Gradually, results from states with tighter margins will follow, culminating in information from "swing states," where voter preferences may shift from one election to another. While unlikely, an electoral surprise cannot be ruled out; a state deemed a sure win for one candidate could unexpectedly flip, voting overwhelmingly for their opponent. In such cases, the ultimate winner will still be determined by outcomes in the "swing states." The final provisional results, reflecting the vote count, will likely be available only after a week or more. As for the official results, which validate the winner and the loser, we may need to wait several weeks, due to the legal time required to complete the appeals process.
Contesting the Electoral Results
It is anticipated that appeals will be filed, and intense legal battles will ensue even before the provisional results are announced. Trump is likely to attack from all angles, especially if the outcome is unfavourable for him. The Democratic camp may also initiate appeals, particularly if Harris does not secure a victory. These appeals will encompass both administrative and legal dimensions and may also involve street protests. We cannot overlook the mobilisation capacity of the American far left, as evidenced by the protests following the death of George Floyd and, more recently, the pro-Palestinian demonstrations in universities and cities across the country. While there is a risk of violent demonstrations, specialised police units will be prepared to intervene swiftly to restore order. In the worst-case scenario, the National Guard could be deployed to quell any unrest, although such intervention is unlikely. It is important to emphasize that the results of the vote will not be significantly altered by legal challenges, which often prove ineffective, nor by street demonstrations, regardless of their intensity or the side that supports them.
Conquering Congress: The Path to Real Power
While congressional elections are a significant event, they often receive less attention than presidential elections. However, their importance cannot be overstated, especially in the current domestic and international political context for the United States. A new president will have limited maneuverability without congressional support for their actions and decisions. This year, the legislative elections will determine the majorities in both houses of Congress: the Senate and the House of Representatives. We believe the Democrats are likely to gain control of at least one of the two chambers, with a reasonable chance of winning both. Conversely, Republicans face diminished prospects of securing control over either chamber or the likelihood of them achieving simultaneous control is even slimmer. Here are two key arguments supporting this assessment:
1. Alternating Power: Historically, Americans have shown a preference for alternating power in the legislative branch. Since the House of Representatives is currently controlled by Republicans, it is expected that it will shift to Democratic control.
2. The Election Campaign: Although the information available is more limited compared to the presidential campaign, it appears that the Democrats are running a more effective campaign than Kamala Harris in the general election.
Consequently, if Kamala Harris is elected president, she will have a better chance of implementing her electoral program than Donald Trump. However, it remains to be seen how effectively she can achieve this, given the clear weaknesses she has exhibited during the campaign.
Harris and Domestic Politics: Navigating Challenges and Opportunities
As president, Kamala Harris will face numerous challenges, compounded by limited support within the Democratic Party and a lack of experience in both domestic and foreign policy. Her political career began as a prosecutor, followed by a single term in the U.S. Senate from 2017 to 2021. During that time, she served on the Intelligence Committee for her first year and then on the Judiciary Committee. As vice president under Biden, Harris was primarily tasked with managing immigration issues at the southern border, but she lacked the actual authority to effect significant change. Since the beginning of Biden's administration, her role has been constrained, with many of her public appearances focusing more on image than on tangible action. The decision to designate her as Biden's successor was strategic; no other candidate could have united the various factions within the Democratic Party, and an internal contest would have significantly undermined their chances in the presidential election. Given these circumstances, Kamala Harris risks becoming little more than a symbolic figure with limited influence. In reality, it will be ministers and senior officials appointed by powerful party leaders, such as Obama, who will shape American policy on her behalf. While it’s possible that in the second half of her term, Harris may be able to advocate for some of her ideas, achieving this would require her to establish a solid power base within both the administration and the party. However, we believe this is unlikely to occur.
Harris and Foreign Policy: Lack of Experience and its Potential Implications
Kamala Harris is expected to align herself with the continuation of the policies initiated by Biden, but she is likely to encounter greater challenges than her predecessor. The lack of support that Biden has experienced within the Democratic Party, combined with Harris's relatively limited political experience, may hinder her ability to achieve significant results. Among the promises made during the campaign, those related to the expansion and financing of the healthcare system are the most likely to be fulfilled. If she secures a comfortable majority in Congress, Harris could also meet her commitments regarding taxes and fees, as well as implement certain environmental measures. However, the success of her promises related to major infrastructure investments and environmental protection will heavily depend on the revenue generated by the U.S. economy and the ability to secure a favourable majority in Congress.
Fears Under a Potential Harris Presidency
As President Biden's term concludes, the United States appears diminished in global influence and respect. Biden’s tenure witnessed the eruption of two significant conflicts: the war in Ukraine beginning in 2022 and the conflict in Gaza starting in 2023. As these crises deepened, tensions escalated further. Russia's aggression in Ukraine has evolved into a broader confrontation, with Iran and North Korea joining forces with Moscow. Meanwhile, the conflict in Gaza has expanded into a regional war involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, and there are growing concerns about potential direct confrontations with Iran and its allies across Syria and Iraq. In this precarious international environment, Kamala Harris would face extraordinary challenges, potentially more severe than those encountered during Biden’s presidency. One key concern is her lack of substantive experience in foreign policy. If Harris relies heavily on advisors shaped by the policies of the Obama administration—marked by events like the Arab Spring and Russia’s annexation of Crimea and parts of Donbas—there are fears that similar missteps could be repeated. The outcomes of past strategies serve as a cautionary tale, suggesting that the coming years could require not only strong leadership but also innovative diplomatic approaches to avoid exacerbating global instability. A Harris presidency could face a series of potentially destabilising global crises. Among the most concerning scenarios are: 1) a possible invasion of Taiwan by China; 2) a direct military conflict between Israel and Iran, potentially drawing in Iranian allies across Syria and Iraq; and 3) North Korean troops engaging directly with Ukrainian forces, while European nations such as France, Poland, Romania, the Baltic states, the UK, and South Korea shore up Ukraine’s defences and secure its rear positions. The South Koreans are now prepared to provide state-of-the-art weaponry in considerable quantities, an aspect that underlines a different approach to that of the United States, which has so far failed to provide similar support. A major critique of Harris is her perceived lack of foreign policy expertise, which may leave her ill-equipped to handle the challenges posed by aggressive and often ruthless leaders like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Ayatollah Khamenei, Kim Jong-un, or authoritarian figures like Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Benjamin Netanyahu. Furthermore, even when engaging with competent but formidable democratic leaders, such as Emmanuel Macron, Giorgia Meloni, Volodymyr Zelensky, or European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Harris may struggle to assert herself. At best, she may find herself aligning with their positions, rather than leading decisively. Critics argue that this could result in a paralysed U.S. foreign policy, characterised by hesitant and inadequate responses. This scenario mirrors current criticisms of American support for Ukraine: offering enough aid to prevent defeat but not enough to ensure victory or meaningful recovery. The fear is that a Harris administration might continue this pattern of minimal engagement, providing just enough support to maintain a fragile status quo rather than taking bold actions to reshape or resolve conflicts.
Trump: Priorities in Domestic Policy
It is important to know that Donald Trump may return to the White House with the desire to take revenge on those who opened files on him or vehemently criticized him in the past. Some of his attention and energy could be channeled in this direction. However, Trump is also expected to focus on fulfilling his campaign promises. Its’ success will depend largely on one key factor: Republican control of both houses of Congress. The most achievable promises are economic ones, such as reducing taxes and fees, promoting investment projects and boosting energy production, including oil exploitation. On these topics, Trump could more easily reach a consensus with Democrats in Congress. However, if Democrats control part or all of the legislature, the chances of Trump overturning all of the environmental regulations implemented by the Biden administration will be slim. On controversial topics like abortion or gun regulation, no major changes are expected under a Trump administration. Instead, immigration will remain a priority. While Trump is likely to take steps to significantly reduce the flow of illegal immigrants, managing the phenomenon will be a more complex challenge. Deporting those who enter illegally or those already on US soil will run into strong opposition from judges and elected Democrats, including state governors.
Trump and Foreign Policy: Navigating Uncertainties
Foreign policy will likely be a tertiary concern for Trump, ranking behind his focus on domestic politics and his desire for personal vindication. Initially, his approach will be relatively superficial, shifting only if he perceives that the United States is not being accorded the respect, he believes it deserves. In general, Trump is expected to maintain amicable relations with key European leaders, including France's Emmanuel Macron, Italy's Giorgia Meloni, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. However, his relationship with Germany may be more contentious. Germany, under Angela Merkel's tenure, was criticised by Trump for being overly reliant on Russian energy, and he has since characterised it as overly deferential to President Biden. Thus, tensions and commercial disputes with the European Union are possible, although these would likely be handled through diplomatic channels. In contrast, Trump's approach to dealing with authoritarian regimes and dictatorships will be markedly more confrontational. He may adopt a more aggressive stance against countries like China and North Korea, using economic measures such as tariffs or even engaging in a so-called "trade war." While these measures are likely to be paired with assertive rhetoric, they may also involve tangible demonstrations of American strength. In the Middle East, Trump's support for Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will likely remain steadfast. This could include backing aggressive actions against Iranian-backed forces and potentially supporting pre-emptive measures against Iran itself to eliminate threats to Israel's security. Trump might even pressure Israeli leadership to act decisively if he perceives any hesitation on their part.
Trump and Ukraine: Possible Scenarios
Our stance is clear: if Donald Trump were to return to the presidency, we believe he would support Ukraine in winning the war (see "Trump and Ukraine"). However, this view is not widely shared. The overwhelming consensus among experts, commentators, and public opinion has been that Trump would abandon Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, whom he perceives as a friend and ally. This narrative has been heavily promoted in the media and across social platforms, becoming the prevailing expectation. Recently, though, some commentators have begun to challenge this mainstream view, offering more nuanced scenarios. These interpretations suggest that Trump might pressure Ukraine to negotiate a peace agreement with Russia, potentially modelled after previous "Minsk" accords, which would effectively freeze the conflict in its current state. Despite this possibility, we contend that any peace deal Trump might advocate would not be favourable to Russia. Even if Trump were to push for negotiations, he is unlikely to accept any outcome that allows Russia to claim victory. His reputation as a tough negotiator, his nationalist pride, and his desire to project strength would drive him to ensure that any resolution does not leave Russia with a strategic advantage. Here are Trump's strategic considerations:
1. Trump has no interest in strengthening China, a key rival against whom he plans to launch a new "trade war."
2. He also seeks to avoid empowering North Korea, which would otherwise become harder to pressure for concessions, as he managed to do in 2018.
3. Additionally, Trump does not want to indirectly bolster Iran's theocratic regime, which is already waging a proxy war against Israel through groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. The likelihood of a direct conflict with Iran is growing.
However, if Trump were to pressure Ukraine into accepting a peace deal under unfavourable terms, Ukraine might very well refuse. Trump's options for applying pressure are limited: his main leverage would be to suspend military assistance from the United States. Notably, this already occurred between November 2023 and April 2024, yet Ukraine managed to hold its ground. The outcome of the election will determine whether we wake up tomorrow in a superficial world dominated by "circus and Coca-Cola," where fleeting distractions take precedence over meaningful engagement, or in a harsh and unpredictable reality where we must rely on our own resourcefulness to navigate the challenges ahead.
Additional Predictions
Beyond the previously discussed points, we anticipate that Trump's next term will also bring significant changes in the following areas:
Elimination of federal support for progressive ideologies: We expect a complete rollback of federal backing for policies aligned with progressive movements, with a particular focus on curbing the influence of "gender theory" and the initiatives of what was once the LGBT community, now expanded to LGBTQIA+. This move would likely involve reversing many existing measures that support these ideologies.
Termination of federal support for current environmental policies: Trump is likely to end federal endorsement for what we have termed "the ecology of useful idiots" (for more, see our article Real Ecology). His administration could dismantle policies already in place, arguing that current environmental measures fail to protect the planet and instead produce the following effects: a. Weakening the economic and strategic position of the West; b. Fueling slavery and forced labor for workers and farmers in multiple Global South countries, along with child exploitation; c. Enabling the unchecked enrichment of oligarchs and political elites in these nations.
A world where the United States and the West grow stronger while dictatorships weaken: By the end of Trump's term, we anticipate a significant decline in the number of authoritarian regimes remaining in power. While President Biden positioned himself as a staunch defender of democracy through rhetoric, it often lacked effective action, allowing dictators to act with impunity. During Trump's first term, his public posture seemed amicable toward such regimes; however, in practice, they were kept in check and avoided major actions. For a deeper analysis, read our piece Biden vs. Trump.
Conclusion
In conclusion, all these anticipated policy shifts point to a reorientation of U.S. domestic and international strategies under Trump's leadership.
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