To attack Taiwan, China has a fire window that will close in early 2025, when the new president of the United States makes his entrance.
China - Defensive Military Power
China has always been a country with a high cultural level, an outlook on life and a philosophy of its own. In the past, China influenced the world in many areas, including the way it viewed war (Sun Tzu's 'The Art of War' is one of the most important works of military strategy in history). But it did not seek to take over territories belonging to other states/populations, rather having an inward-looking policy and showing very little concern for what was happening beyond its borders. This behavior did not prevent its neighbors from attacking, which forced China to develop a defensive military policy, culminating in the construction of the Great Wall. Throughout its history of thousands of years, China has suffered the occupation of more or less large portions of its territory (without ever being fully occupied); patient and resilient, she recovered them after a while. Even though in the last century China adopted a somewhat more aggressive military posture – the conquest of Tibet, substantial aid in men and war materials to North Korea during the Korean War (1950 – 1953), the wars with the Soviet Union in 1969 and Vietnam in 1979 (which were more border conflicts than high-intensity war) – structurally and strategically, China remains a defensive military power.
Aggressive economic power
Throughout its history, China has lived more like an autarky, sufficient for itself, without seeking to develop economic-commercial exchanges with the rest of the world (but without prohibiting them). In the 19th century, Western powers forced it to open up its internal market and open up to the world. The victory of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) against the Guomindang (Chinese Nationalist Party) in 1949 pushed China into the camp of the communist powers. Led by Mao Zedong, China worked to build a strong industrial and agricultural economy under the leadership of the CCP. Failure: when Mao died, China was, from an economic point of view, a 'field of ruins'. It is Den Xiaoping who abandons the economic policy led by the CCP and opens the economy to capitalism, but a wild capitalism (the 'Far West' model coupled with the 'Poor South') or without workplace safety standards. This means that (almost) all major Western companies have rushed to produce there at extremely low costs, and China has become the 'workshop/factory of the world'. In exchange for these benefits, China forced a 'technology transfer' to its companies, which allowed it to make similar products at much lower prices. The result of the races: China has amassed enormous wealth and economic power (the second largest economy in the world according to official Chinese statistics, which, however, are not the most reliable!). Which gave it the idea and desire to dominate the world economically, later becoming an aggressive economic power. At the end of 2019, China had a long way to go to achieve this goal, but today, at the beginning of 2024, China finds itself with its back against the wall, on the verge of falling into the abyss due to the decisions made by Xi Jinping, the Chinese dictator, that is:
1. 'Zero COVID' policy
At the beginning of 2020, the scourge of COVID appeared in China and very quickly spread around the world. Immediately, China adopted a 'zero COVID' policy, meaning everything stops and the population of the area in question (where several cases of Covid have been discovered) is closed until no more contaminations appear. Over time, this policy became a huge drag on the economy and the countless Western companies that produced there. At the end of 2022, Xi put an end to this, but it was already too late: the economy was in crisis and many foreign companies were already working on backup strategies to leave China.
2. Alliance with Russia
On February 24, 2022, Putin's Russia attacked Ukraine and very quickly became locked in a war that Russia will most likely ultimately lose (read 'World's Hot Spots: Ukraine' on the blog). Xi had to choose between 'heart' (staying with Putin, because China and Russia have a similar regime) and 'head' (joining the West in his alliance for Ukraine to continue his goal of becoming the 'economic' master of the world ). Unfortunately, Xi chose the 'heart' and, subsequently, relations with the West began to weaken (Western companies are moving further and further away from China, and with them, money is not coming as before).
3. Breaking with the past
Departing from the rules imposed by Deng Xiaoping, Xi increased state control—the CCP, to put it bluntly—over the economy. Exactly what was needed to turn the economic crisis the country is going through today into guaranteed bankruptcy a few years later. So, given the economic crisis that China is sinking into more and more almost every day, for them, there are only two ways out: 1. Makes the West dependent on China through the 'all-electric' policy (read 'The Electric Car, Big Scam' on the blog); 2. Get hold of Taiwan (with all its advantages).
Taiwan
The island of Taiwan was part of China almost from the beginning until 1949, when the Guomindang (the loser of the civil war against the CCP) took refuge on the island and proclaimed a separate state from China. Beginning as a dictatorship, the political regime on the island has evolved over time into today's consolidated democracy. Economically, they have always been market-oriented, which means that today Taiwan has a solid economy, a strong industrial base, and being number one in semiconductors (which are an essential element of anything somewhat automated, from telephones , missiles, drones or cars). Ties with China exist in (almost) all areas of economic, political and social life. With other countries of the world, Taiwan has normal economic and other relations, and unofficially, Western countries (United States of America, EU countries, Great Britain, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand) signal to China that he is granted a margin of protection.
Why does China want Taiwan?
The capture of Taiwan is a triple victory for China because:
Politically, he is a huge source of popular pride and jubilation for successfully reuniting the country with its missing piece of land.
Strategically, this gives it a solid base to claim total control over the Taiwan Strait, which is crossed by many ships (as a result, the entire space between China and Taiwan becomes an 'inland' sea; hence, customs duties, navigation, etc., resulting in money to fill the coffers of the state and the CCP). But also to understand the maritime area controlled by China at the expense of other neighboring countries (Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, etc.)
Economically, because Taiwan's economic wealth will fuel a struggling Chinese economy. In addition, gaining control of the semiconductor industry will allow it to have another lever to make the West dependent (in addition to 'everything electric'). But more obstacles loom in Xi's and the CCP's desire to seize control of Taiwan.
Can China be stopped from attacking Taiwan?
A 'soft' conquest through economic influence is no longer possible today, due to the state of the Chinese economy. The military option remains, which, however, faces several obstacles:
1. Geography
Taiwan is an island where mountains border the coast. Therefore, a hypothetical military invasion will immediately come up against an almost impenetrable natural barrier.
2. Logistics
Soldiers and war materials must be transported and unloaded on the island's beaches. But the Chinese do not have the ships or other equipment adequate in number and capacity.
3. The state of his army
Officially, the Chinese army is large, well trained and equipped with modern and effective weapons. In reality, after checking with the 'Russian toolbox' (that is, looking at how the Russian army and its war materials - as they are officially presented - operate today on the Ukrainian front), we come to the conclusion that it is only a polished facade beautiful. In reality, the military is poorly trained, the commanders are incompetent, and the most modern war materiel is actually at the level of Western weapons of the 1970s (whereas the ones Taiwan has today are at the level of the 1990s). An even more invalidating theory: Chinese military culture is stuck on the defensive (because the country has always been a defensive military power, explanation above) and is therefore unable to properly prepare for an attack of this magnitude (this it's just not in their DNA).
4. Fear of the West and its neighbours
China fears military intervention by the United States (probably along with the United Kingdom, France, and other European and regional powers such as Japan) in support of Taiwan. At the same time, China fears possible European and American sanctions, which will further affect the regime's weakened economy. At the same time, the reactions of India and Vietnam should be monitored (or even feared): in case of failure, they could take advantage of the settlement of border disputes with their very powerful neighbor (today!).
Scenarios for the future
Let's be very clear: today, the United States is practically paralyzed by the electoral battle between Trump and Biden. Any action by Biden will be thwarted by Republicans in Congress to give him no chance against Trump. So China would have to attack and conquer Taiwan by early 2025 (when the new president takes office), which, unfortunately for them, China is unable to do.
Most likely scenario: 65-70%
According to the latest polls, Donald Trump may become the next president of the United States (a topic we will develop in later posts). He will greatly strengthen the Taiwanese defenses, mainly with the help of the Ukrainians (read 'The Big Lie' on the blog). By the end of 2026 or later 2027, China's economic situation will deteriorate significantly, and popular protest movements (caused by falling incomes, hunger, unemployment) will be increasingly difficult to contain. Xi's position will be increasingly weakened, and the attack on Taiwan will appear to him as his last chance to stay in power and save his regime. The Taiwanese military, trained and supported by the Ukrainians, using tens of thousands of aerial and naval drones, will destroy the invasion force before it even gets in front of the island. The reinforcements sent by the Americans will not even need to join the Taiwanese army. Later, Xi is stripped of power and a grassroots democracy movement – ​​funded and led by the Americans – will attempt to seize power.
Unlikely scenario: 25-30%
After this year's presidential election, the Americans will find themselves immersed in an internal conflict that gives the impression that they are no longer receptive and willing to intervene effectively in support of Taiwan. So China will attack Taiwan, but the economic sanctions taken by the EU (mainly) will have the effect of not being able to sustain the war effort in the long term. In addition, even with some delay, American aid will arrive in time to help Taiwan repel the Chinese attack.
Unlikely scenario: 0-5%
The United States is almost paralyzed by the post-election dispute between the two camps, Democratic and Republican, and will find itself unable to help Taiwan. China will attack and resist EU sanctions, in time to obtain Taiwan's surrender and annexation.
The Black Swans
The 'Black Swan' is an unpredictable event which has a low probability of occurring and which, if it occurs, has far-reaching and exceptional consequences.
1. Instead of a frontal attack, Xi will choose the path of economic and political control. No chance of success, given that the Chinese economy is sinking into crisis and that pro-Chinese political forces are exerting less and less influence.
2. Establishing a maritime 'blockade'. No success, because the 'blockade' will be quickly lifted under the pressure of the joint naval forces of the United States, France, the United Kingdom and other democratic states.
3. Xi is no longer in power (dead or replaced). His successor will maintain his goal of winning Taiwan (for the reasons above). He is unlikely to show more ability than Xi.
Next post: 'Trump vs. Biden. The match of the century', in the cycle 'The hot spots of the world: the United States'). Subscribe to read it as soon as it's published.
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